For the past six and a half seasons, the matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks was one between Trae Young and Luka Dončić, two All-Star point guards traded for each other on draft night in 2018. Now, Dončić is in Los Angeles, and Young will face the Mavericks in the first matchup between the two teams that doesn’t have much intrigue, unless you care who will land the ninth seed in the Western Conference or the seventh seed in the East.
Despite the roster turmoil surrounding the Hawks this season, Young has put up a very solid campaign, averaging 24.1 points and a league-leading 11.6 assists per game, marking the first time he’s led the league in the latter category. However, his efficiency has been poor and he’s coughed up the ball too much, and I’m not expecting a very good game from him against Dallas tonight.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Hawks are four-point underdogs and the total is set for 240.5. Here’s why I think the Mavericks are well-equipped to stop Ice Trae:
Best Trae Young Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Trae Young U25.5 Points (-120)
This iteration of Dallas’ squad is difficult to evaluate, since the roster has gone through such a dramatic upheaval in the past few games. First, Anthony Davis — the centerpiece of the Dončić deal — returned from the adductor strain that had sidelined him since his Mavericks debut. Then, center Daniel Gafford made his debut after a knee sprain that he suffered in the game after Davis’ injury. Finally, Dereck Lively II, the promising second-year big who has been out since January 14 because of a stress fracture in his ankle, might return tonight as well. If “defense wins champions”, as Nico Harrison boldly proclaimed after trading Dončić, this Dallas team should be good on that side of the ball. The early returns have been good: in the last five games, of which Davis played four, the Mavericks have the league’s eighth-best defensive rating.
In fairness to Harrison, it’s hard to understate how high this Dallas team’s defensive ceiling within 10 feet of the basket is with Davis, Gafford, and Lively all healthy. In his five-game Mavericks stint so far, opponents have shot 22.7 percentage points worse than usual when Davis is the nearest defender, and that figure is 11.9 percentage points for Gafford and 9.2 percentage points for Lively. Dallas genuinely has three of the best rim protectors in basketball and should always have at least one of them on the floor. Of course, only 34.4% of Young’s shot attempts come from within 10 feet, but he also makes a living at the free throw line, and the Mavericks rarely foul.
Trae Young U2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
This is almost the default answer, given that Young has made three or more triples only nine times in the 40 games that he has scored 25 or fewer points. Whether or not he rains terror from deep depends on his efficiency — Young sometimes makes a lot of triples because he always attempts a lot of triples, the 12th-most in the league. It’s certainly possible that, if his drives are being walled off by the combination of Davis, Gafford, and Lively and he’s not able to get to the free-throw line as much as he usually does, he’ll settle for threes even more than usual. Regardless, he’s prone to the occasional stinker from deep.
Dallas should also be good at preventing opposing players from making threes, and indeed, it has allowed the league’s ninth-best percentage since Davis’ return. There are still a few decent three-point defenders on the Mavericks’ roster, including Max Christie, who they acquired in the Dončić deal and who’s holding players to just 24.5% from deep in his 26 games with the team. Between his stints in Los Angeles and Dallas, opponents are shooting just 31.1% from deep when guarded by Christie, the seventh-lowest mark among 150 players who have played at least 60 games and guarded at least three three-point attempts per game. Plus, while Davis has allowed a fairly high percentage of threes to go in in his Mavericks stint so far, he was an above-average three-point defender as a Laker and has the ability to alter shots with his seven-foot-five wingspan.
