Last week, the Memphis Grizzlies pulled off the second-most surprising move of the season: firing head coach Taylor Jenkins with just nine games remaining in the season and replacing him with Tuomas Iisalo for the playoff run. The dramatic personnel change came amidst a prolonged slump: Memphis has gone just 8-13, with a negative-1.1 net rating, since the All-Star break. So far, the results haven’t been good; Iisalo is 0-2 in his new role, although the losses came to a pair of contenders in the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics.
The road won’t get any easier for Iisalo and the Grizzlies Tuesday night, as they’ll host the team that has posted the league’s third-best net rating since the All-Star break: the Golden State Warriors. The deal for Jimmy Butler revitalized Golden State’s offense, and two-time MVP Stephen Curry is playing like the prime version of himself.
With Curry and the Warriors on a roll, it’s no surprise that Golden State is a four-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 238. Meanwhile, Memphis is +145 on the Moneyline.
Jimmy Butler to Record a Double-Double (+310)
Butler’s offensive production has been somewhat inconsistent as a Warrior, but the threat of him has been potent enough that he’s made a huge impact on his teammates, and Golden State is outscoring its opponents by a whopping 9.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Overall, his impact has been more well-rounded in Steve Kerr’s motion-heavy offense than it was in Miami; he’s averaging 6.9 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game since joining the team, both of which would be among the highest of his career in both categories. In his 22-game Warriors stint, he’s recorded double-digit assists three times and double-digit rebounds three times, so he’s a threat to record 10-plus assists even if he doesn’t snag 10-plus boards.
Plus, the Grizzlies have struggled at all facets of defense since the All-Star break, which partially led to Jenkins’ dismissal. Across that span, Memphis has allowed the fourth-most points, 11th-most rebounds, and seventh-most assists, so Tuesday presents a great opportunity for Butler to stuff the stat sheet. Golden State’s core will also be very healthy; besides Gary Payton II, who’s out with a wrist injury, and Jonathan Kuminga, who’s questionable with a pelvic contusion, every other Warrior will be available. In a must-win game for Golden State, which would jump the Grizzlies for the West’s fifth seed with a victory, expect an ultra-motivated Butler.
Zach Edey U6.5 Rebounds (+110)
The seven-foot-four Canadian is a pretty good rebounder, which makes sense given his colossal height. Among all 560 players who have appeared in at least one minute this season, Edey ranks 30th in total rebounding percentage with a 19.7% figure that would place him eighth if he’d played enough possessions to qualify. Of all the rookies this season, he’s been among the most consistent, which can largely be attributable to both his age (at 22, he’s one of the oldest players in the class) and his role but is impressive nonetheless.
But Edey only snagged two rebounds in Memphis’ 117-103 loss to Boston last night, and he only played 12 minutes. His playing time is largely dependent on how many fouls he commits; after being relatively disciplined in college, he has ranked sixth in fouls per 100 possessions in his first season at the professional level. The Warriors’ veteran guile makes them one of Edey’s worst possible matchups. Since Butler’s debut, they’ve drawn the fifth-most personal fouls per game, and he, Kuminga, and Curry all rank in the league’s top 50 in free-throw attempts per game. Across that span, Golden State ranks third in basketball in paint touches and also ranks second in cut frequency, so it’ll find plenty of opportunities to bait Edey into fouling.
Jaylen Wells 2+ Three-Pointers Made (+105)
Edey isn’t the only Grizzlies rookie who seems likely to join Stephon Castle and Zaccharie Risacher on the All-Rookie First Team. Wells, too, has played a huge role in keeping Memphis afloat even with incumbent star Ja Morant appearing in just 45 of the Grizzlies’ 75 games. The second-round pick ranks second on the team in three-pointers made and converts at a decent 35.6% clip. He is also frequently tasked with guarding the opponent’s best player, even if he grades out as a net-negative defender.
It’ll be tough for him to make two triples against a Golden State team that has allowed the sixth-fewest made threes per game in the league since dealing for Butler — against whom have shot 1.7 percentage points worse than usual from deep — but it’s mostly a function of the fact that the Warriors have allowed just the second-fewest three-point attempts. When Golden State does allow triples, they tend to go in, at the league’s seventh-highest clip since the Butler deal. Wells has nailed two or more triples in three of his past four games, so the +105 odds are friendly.
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