I’m really not here to make any sort of April Fools jokes. I’m here to hand out a couple winning bets for tonight’s 13-game MLB slate. However, if any of the bets lose, I give myself the right to claim they were actually a joke. Deal? Deal.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s find some value on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Under 7.5 (-105)
Taking an under is a scary proposition at the moment. We’re now living in a world of torpedo bats and (possibly) juiced baseballs. Still, despite all that, I think this matchup sets up quite nicely as a low-scoring affair.
At the end of the day, this is simply a great pitching matchup. Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for the Marlins after a very impressive outing on Opening Day. The wheels fell off a little bit towards the end, but the 2022 NL Cy Young winner pitched to a 2.44 FIP with a 35.0% strikeout rate across 4.2 innings of work. Alcantara’s fastball velocity was all the way back and he managed a jaw-dropping 17.6% swinging strike rate. It was everything you could have wanted to see from the ace.
Alcantara will be opposed by Kodai Senga, who is another pitcher we’ve only had the privilege to watch a handful of times in recent seasons thanks to injury. In 30 career starts at the MLB level, Senga possesses a 2.99 ERA and a 29.6% strikeout rate. I’m less confident in his current form than Alcantara’s, but Senga gets the added benefit of getting to face a Marlins lineup that lacks any sort of pop. Miami’s mustered a .135 ISO in its first five contests and it continues to project as one of the worst run-scoring teams in the league.
Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
I don’t know how many times the Angels are actually going to allow Kyle Hendricks to start in 2025, so I’m going to take every early-season opportunity to bet against the veteran RHP. While the 35-year-old can still eat innings with the best of them, Hendricks hasn’t really been an effective pitcher since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Last season, across 130.2 innings, Hendricks registered a 5.92 ERA. He also sported a 16th percentile xERA (4.81) and an eighth percentile opponent expected batting average (.276). Woof.
The Cardinals’ bats are hot right now, too. Though it’s unlikely this team will remain near the top of any offensive leaderboard for the season as a whole, through four games, St. Louis owns a .206 ISO and a 144 wRC+. Lars Nootbar is healthy. Nolan Arenado has gotten off to an encouraging start. Victor Scott is getting on base and wrecking havoc. There’s some real stuff to like here.
