Last night, I played Shohei Ohtani to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. He fell narrowly short with just a run due to an 0-for-3 night at the dish.
What intrigued me was Atlanta’s strategy against him. The Braves nibbled around him, willing to concede two walks in exchange for the three punch-outs. Ohtani can chase at times despite having a good eye, trusting his bat to ball skills and massive power. He is a well-rounded hitter, but more of a three true outcomes guy than most acknowledge.
What bearing does this have on tonight’s game? Let’s look into it more.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Los Angeles is the home favorite at -135, and the run total is set at 7.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet for this contest.
Best Shohei Ohtani Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shohei Ohtani over 0.5 walks drawn (+125)
For those who don’t know, the three true outcomes are a strikeout, a walk and a home run. Think Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, the great .200 hitting sluggers of yore. Since the Dodgers slugger was a .310 hitter and swiped tons of bags, this aspect of his game is buried slightly. In his all-world season of 2024, nearly 41% of his plate appearances followed the three true outcomes.
There are stretches where Ohtani acts like a three true outcomes guy but with great plate discipline and very high BABIP numbers. This season has been a tick up so far. He went 5-for-5 on the outcomes last night and is up to 15 walks + strikeouts + homers in 28 plate appearances so far. Those are some prime Adam Dunn three true outcome rates that would make the Big Donkey proud.
With Freddie Freeman feeling the effects of his ankle injury even more, the cushion behind Ohtani allows Atlanta to nibble the strike zone against him, likely resulting in a free pass or two. That speaks to how dangerous Ohtani is. They’re willing to pitch around a 59-bag stealer, so he doesn’t park one into the upper bleachers. This is great value for a guy working walks with the best of them.
