The No. 1 Texas Longhorns (34-2) face off against the No. 2 TCU Horned Frogs (32-3) in an all-Texas Elite Eight clash that promises nothing less than a showdown of titans. This isn’t just about a spot in the Final Four—bragging rights for the entire state of Texas are up for grabs. Both teams are playing historic basketball, but Texas, armed with the relentless Madison Booker and a defense that suffocates everything in its path, is a different beast. TCU’s offensive juggernaut, led by the red-hot Hailey Van Lith, will have to rise to new heights to keep pace with a Longhorns team that dominates in every facet of the game. I’ll detail it all in my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this NCAAW March Madness Elite Eight college basketball game between Texas and TCU.
Here’s how I’ll play the game. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout the tournaments.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
Texas vs. TCU preview, prediction
The Longhorns’ defense has been a juggernaut all season, and it’s nearly impossible to see TCU’s high-octane offense thriving against it. Texas has held opponents to just 56 points per game (18th nationally), and they force a staggering 20.9 turnovers per game, ranking 16th in the nation. TCU has been stellar offensively, averaging 77.7 points per game (22nd in the country), but they’ve yet to face a defense that pressures the ball and forces mistakes as effectively as Texas. The Horned Frogs have done a great job limiting their turnovers, averaging just 12.1 per game, but Texas will put that to the test with their suffocating press and disciplined defense. TCU’s reliance on Hailey Van Lith is clear—she’s their leading scorer with 17.9 points per game—but against a Longhorns defense that has held teams to 41.7% shooting (10th nationally), Van Lith will face her toughest challenge yet.
Where Texas really separates itself is in the paint. The Longhorns average 48.7 points in the paint per game, 2nd in the nation, and they score almost exclusively inside, ranking 355th in 3-point attempt rate. Their offensive strategy is a bruising, inside-out attack, and with TCU’s defense allowing 50.8% shooting inside (ranking 284th in the nation), expect Texas to dominate down low with Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre. Meanwhile, TCU has struggled to contain opposing post players, and Sedona Prince will have to step up for the Horned Frogs to avoid being overwhelmed by the Texas frontcourt.
TCU has had a remarkable run this season, but their lack of depth—especially on defense—is concerning. In their Sweet 16 victory over Notre Dame, Van Lith led the way with 26 points, but she couldn’t do it all herself, as the rest of the team contributed just 45 points. Texas, on the other hand, has shown time and time again that they can win without needing a single player to drop 30 points. Their team-oriented approach, with 5 players averaging double digits, means they don’t rely on one player to carry them. The Longhorns also lead the nation in defensive efficiency, allowing just 87.4 points per 100 possessions. This will be the biggest test of TCU’s offensive firepower, and Texas’ defense is more than equipped to handle it.
TCU vs. Texas pick, best bet
The Horned Frogs will need a near-perfect shooting night to stay competitive, but that’s a tall order against a Texas team that defends at such a high level and holds opponents to just 56 points per game in the tournament. Texas has also been dominating the boards with that +7.9 rebound margin. And, while TCU has been strong in the paint, they’ve been outrebounded by an average of 2.1 per game in the tournament.
Texas has simply been more consistent in all areas, from their elite defense to their offensive depth and rebounding. TCU’s momentum has been impressive, but it won’t be enough to withstand Texas’ all-around dominance.
Best bet: Texas -7.5 (-105)
Tail the Longhorns to finally break through with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
