The Sacramento Kings have been dragged into a three-way battle for the final Play-In Tournament spot in the Western Conference. The Dallas Mavericks — who have suddenly gotten hot after Anthony Davis’ return from injury — have leapt the Kings into ninth, while Sacramento holds a 1.5-game edge over the Phoenix Suns, who are suddenly without Kevin Durant for at least a week.
One major factor that has contributed to the Kings’ slip in the standings was the fact that center Domantas Sabonis missed the better part of three weeks with hamstring and ankle injuries. He’s only scored 20 points once in the four games since his return, but between his efficiency, his rebounding, and his playmaking, Sacramento’s chances hinge more on him than on any other player.
The Kings will need Sabonis to put up a brilliant performance tonight against the streaking Indiana Pacers, who have the upper hand in the race for the East’s fourth seed.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Sacramento is a 4.5-point underdog and the total is set for 235. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Sabonis.
Best Domantas Sabonis Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Domantas Sabonis 15+ Rebounds (+140)
The six-foot-10 Lithuanian has led the league in boards in each of the past three seasons and has recorded 20 or more rebounds more times than he’s grabbed fewer than 10. Since his return from injury, he’s had a 19-rebound game and a 17-rebound game despite playing a slightly decreased minutes load. Between him and his compatriot, Jonas Valančiūnas, the Kings consistently control the glass, and it’s no surprise that Sacramento ranks third in total rebounding percentage since Valančiūnas’ debut on February 6.
Meanwhile, despite Indiana’s brilliance since January 1 overall, the Pacers have still struggled somewhat on the boards. In 2025, Indiana is 27-13 and sports a top-10 offensive and defensive rating. However, it has still allowed the 11th-most rebounds to opposing players, and it’ll be without Myles Turner tonight with an illness. Although the Pacers dealt for Thomas Bryant earlier in the season to deal with their woes on the interior, Turner’s absence will still hurt. Indiana has been out-rebounded in five of the eight games that Turner has missed this season.
Domantas Sabonis O17.5 Points (-125)
In addition to having a big night on the glass, I also think that Turner’s absence will allow Sabonis to score more than usual. Besides him, nobody in the Pacers’ regular rotation is a defensive anchor. Turner ranks 58th among 182 qualified players in defensive box plus-minus, 41st in defensive win shares, and fourth in block percentage. Opponents shoot 7.3 percentage points worse than usual within six feet of the basket when guarded by Turner, roughly a percentage point better than when Bryant is the nearest defender. Plus, in the minutes that Bryant rests, Sabonis will be able to go against Obi Toppin, who is a negative defender.
Although he’s only scored 18 or more points once since his return, that’s largely been a function of his efficiency. He’s shot worse than 50% from the field in two of his games, two of just 13 times in which he’s done that all season. His usage rate over the last four games has been almost exactly the same as what it was over his first 56 games of the season, prior to the initial injury. Assuming some regression to the mean and accounting for Indiana’s uptempo offense, he should get enough to hit 18 points.
