As the chaos of the NCAA Tournament winds down, the NBA is beginning to return to center stage of the basketball world. Seven games will take place across the Saturday night slate, with each carrying some additional weight in the standings as the season’s end is in sight.
Starting at 5:00 p.m. ET, the Orlando Magic will host the Sacramento Kings with neither team holding the postseason outlook they hoped for. The Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards will face off at 7:00 p.m. ET in a contest between lottery hopefuls as these teams hold the second and fifth worst records. A half-hour later, the Philadelphia 76ers will play the Miami Heat with these teams also having much more frustrating outlooks than they expected.
Four games tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET to round out the slate. The Boston Celtics face the San Antonio Spurs, the Indiana Pacers play the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Chicago Bulls take on the Dallas Mavericks in three interconference matchups. In addition, the Memphis Grizzlies play the Los Angeles Lakers in their first game since the surprising decision to fire head coach Taylor Jenkins.
Keep a close eye on the injury reports as the grind of the season has taken a toll around the league. With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Saturday’s slate.
AJ Johnson Over 10.5 Points (+105)
The Milwaukee Bucks selected AJ Johnson with the 23rd overall pick in this year’s draft. He played in just seven games for the franchise logging 44 total minutes before he was traded to the Washington Wizards as a part of the deal that brought back Kyle Kuzma. On a youthful roster without win-now expectations, Johnson’s opportunity has changed in a major way.
Across the opening 13 games with the Wizards, Johnson has logged 318 total minutes of play including starting three games. He is playing 21.1 minutes per night and averaging 7.2 points, 3.1 assists, and 2.5 rebounds. The Illawarra Hawks product has gotten more comfortable with each opportunity and scored 12+ points in three of his past six games.
Washington will take on the Brooklyn Nets, who hold a similar outlook with upcoming lottery odds being the biggest storyline. Johnson possesses some legitimate shot-creation ability and some burst with the ball in his hands. Over his past seven games, he is playing 29.0 minutes and averaging 10.1 points per game. Expect his minutes to remain expanded tonight as he looks to capitalize against a vulnerable Nets team. Johnson carries himself with confidence and will capitalize on any scoring opportunities that arise. Look for him to be active throughout this game and record over 10.5 points for the fourth time in the past seven games.
Kel’el Ware Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-125)
Another rookie surging in the late stages of the season has been Kel’el Ware. The Heat rookie has shown an ability to fill in as the sole big man and also share the floor with Bam Adebayo for stretches. Ware has started 27 of the 55 games he has played and is averaging 9.0 points and 7.0 rebounds across his 21.4 minutes per game. Across his past seven games played, Ware has averaged 13.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. He has recorded over 22.5 combined points and rebounds in 15 games this season, as well as four of his past seven.
Miami faces off against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have fully waved the white Flag(g) on the season. The Sixers enter this matchup on a six-game losing streak and have lost 23 of their last 27. Injuries continue to be the story of the season with Joel Embiid, Jared McCain, and Paul George shut down for the year while Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre Jr, and Andre Drummond remain out tonight.
Even under the best of circumstances, the Sixers have struggled to rebound this year. They rank dead last in total rebounds and are 18th in opponent rebounds allowed while also ranking 20th in opponent points allowed. Across this 27-game slide, they rank 29th in opponent points allowed and 29th in opponent rebounds allowed. Expect the Sixers to have no answer for Ware as a lob threat and on the boards. Look for the rookie to assert himself on the interior and fill out the stat sheet tonight. Don’t be surprised if this is one of his best statistical performances of the season, so look for Ware to record over 22.5 points and rebounds tonight.
Josh Giddey Under 21.5 Points (-120)
The resurgence of Josh Giddey in Chicago has been one of the better storylines in the second half of the season. After being traded from the Oklahoma City Thunder during the offseason, it took some time for Giddey to settle in with the Bulls, but he is now playing the best basketball of his career. On the season overall, he is averaging 14.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game. Across his past 13 games, Giddey is averaging 22.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game — the last time he touched the floor ended in a 47-foot game-winning heave over the Lakers.
This improved level of play is notable but also pushed the prop line to a point where there is value on the other side. Even amid the hot streak, Giddey has been held under 21.5 points in five of the past 13 games. On the season overall, he has been held under 21.5 points in 54 of the 64 games he has played.
All good things must come to an end at some point. Expect this to be the case for Giddey tonight as Chicago faces off with the Dallas Mavericks. It has been a wild season for that team, but Anthony Davis is expected to be active tonight and will raise their defensive level significantly. Expect Dallas to settle into their defensive-minded mentality behind their star and for points to be hard to come by in this game. Count on Giddey being held under 21.5 points for the 55th time this season as he begins coming back down to earth a bit with his play. Expect an emotional letdown following the game-winner and for him to struggle to create offensive advantages against this Mavericks team. Giddey will still get his stats, but should stay under 21.5 points in the matchup.
Ja Morant Over 31.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)
All eyes will be on Ja Morant and the Grizzlies as they attempt to rally around the coaching change and build some momentum leading into the playoffs. While there are fair gripes with Taylor Jenkins’ decision-making, there must be a point where Morant looks himself in the mirror. From an availability and production standpoint, he simply has not lived up to the face-of-the-franchise label he carries.
Across the 43 games he has played this year, Morant is averaging 22.3 points, 7.4 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game. This marks his lowest scoring and rebounding averages since 2020-21 and his lowest assists average since 2021-22. Morant is also tied for the worst field-goal percentage of his career and is shooting a career-worst 29.1% on three-point attempts.
Despite the shake-up at the head coaching spot, the NBA does not wait for anyone. Memphis is currently tied for fourth place in the Western Conference with the Lakers, whom they play tonight. Los Angeles (somehow) had an impressive defensive stretch shortly following the Luka Doncic trade during which they statistically measured as one of the best defenses in the league. They have regressed since this point with their lack of legitimate rim protector becoming increasingly evident.
Even amid his struggles, Morant has recorded over 31.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 29 of the 43 games he has played this year. Look for him to send a message with his play tonight and be active from start to finish in tonight’s game. Expect him to have success attacking the basket with Los Angeles’ lack of rim protection in mind and for this to open up the rest of his game. This prop number has shrunk throughout the season, so look for Morant to record over 31.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in this Western Conference battle tonight.
