March Madness is into the deep stages, and we have a pair of Elite Eight games on Sunday to determine the last two teams in the Final Four. Let’s breakdown some best bets and predictions on the card.
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No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Houston
Indianapolis, IN – Sunday 2:20pm ET
I got ahead of this one a little bit, while cashing some Houston Elite Eight futures, I also added Houston to win the region. I wrote the play up on DK Network prior to the start of the Sweet Sixteen, and am going to ride this one out. Early money seems to be hitting the Vols pretty hard, though, with the number opening 5.5 and getting bet down to 3.5. Both teams are tenacious on defense, but it comes down to trusting the improvements the Cougars have made on offense. Tennessee is clearly coming off the more impressive win, but this one should look much different.
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Auburn
Atlanta, GA – Sunday 5:05pm ET
If you’ve been following my work throughout the tournament, and really over the last six weeks, you know about the Michigan State trend. Sparty trailed Ole Miss by a bucket at halftime in the Sweet Sixteen, dropping Tom Izzo’s squad to an absurd 2-15 1H ATS since February 1. Of course, coming back and playing the Spartans in the second half has often gone well, so we’ll see if that’s in the cards this time, but the competition against Auburn will be far tougher.
The first half trend obviously usually involves Sparty being favored, as the Ole Miss game was the 10th time during that span that they’ve trailed outright at the break as the favorite. However, MSU was the underdog in four of those 17 games since February 1, so let’s look at how it performed in the first half of those games. At Maryland the Spartans trailed by two at the break, at Michigan they trailed by four and at Illinois they trailed by four — all games they came back and won. The fourth one was at UCLA, where MSU trailed by seven at the break and lost by two points. So Sparty has trailed by four or more points in three of the four as a dog during this span, and the Tigers will be the best team they’ve faced.
Auburn really struggled early against Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen, but found a lot of momentum in the second half — erasing a nine-point deficit with 12 minutes left in the game to actually cover the game as a nine-point favorite. I think the Tigers can take some of that momentum into this one early and open up a gap against MSU. Auburn is the far more talented team in this one, and will have a semi-home court advantage playing in Atlanta.
March Madness Pick: Auburn 1H -2.5 (-120) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
