Let’s breakdown some picks and a prediction for Ole Miss vs. Michigan State in the Sweet 16 on Friday night.
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No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State
Atlanta, GA – Friday 7:09pm ET
The Rebels have been coming out of the gates red-hot in the NCAA Tournament, leading North Carolina by 18 at halftime and Iowa State by 11. Ole Miss was the underdog in both of those games, and is priced as one yet again. Here we have an opportunity to take advantage of these hot starts by Chris Beard’s team against a Tom Izzo squad that’s been as slow out of the gates as anyone in the country.
Michigan State has been a second half wagon down the stretch of the season, but part of the reason its needed to be has been these dreadful starts. Since February 1, Sparty is an absurd 2-14 1H ATS, with the only covers coming in the regular season finale against Michigan, the their Big Ten Tournament opener against Oregon. In the NCAA Tournament, they trailed early to Bryant before taking just a five-point lead into the break, and trailed New Mexico at the half. By trailing the Lobos at halftime on Sunday, it marked the ninth time Michigan State has been losing the game at halftime when priced as the favorite during that span going back to February 1.
I love the way Ole Miss is playing right now, and lean to them in the game here. High seeds in the NCAA Tournament that were not ranked in the preseason top-25 tend to fall apart as the tournament goes on, and Izzo’s roster fits into that trend. That said, due to how strong the first half trends are here, I think taking the points with the Rebs for 1H is the better play in the game.
Sparty has been tremendous in the second half of games, though. So pending how this one looks, don’t be surprised if we switch rooting interests at halftime and make a play on Michigan State if the first half goes our way.
March Madness Pick: Ole Miss 1H +1.5 (-105) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
