The New York Knicks are surely looking in the rear-view mirror now, and the object they see — the Indiana Pacers — is far, far closer than it appears. New York, once thought to be locked into the East’s third seed, is only two games and a half games ahead of Indiana.
If the Knicks do manage to hold onto No. 3, they’ll likely get a preview of their first-round playoff opponent tonight in the Milwaukee Bucks, who have dropped two straight games and lost point guard Damian Lillard for an indefinite period of time. New York’s talisman, point guard Jalen Brunson, will be re-evaluated tomorrow as he continues to work his way back from a March 4 ankle sprain. The southpaw is four games shy of All-NBA eligibility with 10 games remaining in the Knicks’ season.
New York is a one-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-112 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 217.5. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is -108 on the Moneyline.
Giannis Antetokounmpo 45+ Points + Rebounds (+135)
The deep vein thrombosis in Lillard’s calf will not only likely end his season; it’ll effectively end Milwaukee’s chances of winning a championship, which are down to just +20000 at DraftKings Sportsbook. But it might bring out the best in Antetokounmpo, who’s destined for his seventh-straight top-five MVP finish. The Greek Freak has been stellar since Lillard’s last game, averaging 30.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 2.0 combined steals/blocks per contest while shooting 61.1% from the field, although, to be fair, that’s kind of just who Antetokounmpo is.
New York’s defense has been solid in the 10 games since Brunson went down, as the Knicks have allowed the seventh-fewest points and and second-fewest assists per game. But the areas in which New York has struggled perfectly play into Antetokounmpo’s game. Since Brunson’s injury, the Knicks have ceded the 10th-most rebounds per game and own below-average marks in both points in the paint and second-chance points, areas in which Antetokounmpo ranks first and 12th, respectively. Also, Karl-Anthony Towns is the league’s most foul-prone player, and Antetokounmpo has led the league in free-throw attempts in each of the past three seasons.
Tyler Kolek U6.5 Assists (-110)
The 24-year-old second-round rookie will likely be New York’s starting point guard tonight with Brunson, Cameron Payne, and Miles McBride all sidelined, and to be fair, he’s been solid, dishing out eight dimes against the Washington Wizards on Sunday, nine against the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday, and seven against the LA Clippers on Wednesday while playing fewer than 20 minutes in each game. That level of raw production is undeniably impressive, but the Wizards and Mavericks without Anthony Davis are undeniably not. Getting seven assists in an NBA game is hard to do, and I’m going to need to see a larger than three-game sample size in order to believe that Kolek is a passing savant. He’s also gotten incredibly lucky, averaging 8.0 assists per game from just 8.3 potential assist opportunities.
The Bucks been slightly better than a league-average team this season at containing opposing playmakers, allowing the 11th-fewest assists this season. Backup point guard Ryan Rollins, who had started in the first three games of Lillard’s absence before retreating to the bench behind Kevin Porter Jr. on Wednesday, has been one of the league’s better defenders in his limited minutes, averaging 1.5 steals per game across 94 total minutes in his last four contests, while Kyle Kuzma and Taurean Prince on the wings are much more attackable. Given the matchup, expect the Knicks’ playmaking burden to fall on Josh Hart as much as it does Kolek.
OG Anunoby O2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)
In Brunson’s absence, two of New York’s three rangy wings have stepped up their production, while Hart’s has dipped significantly. Prior to Brunson’s injury, Anunoby had been averaging 16.5 points and 2.2 made triples per game, which have seen an uptick to 21.5 points and 2.6 made threes (on 39.4% accuracy). Meanwhile, Mikal Bridges jumped from 17.2 points to 21.2, although his three-point volume decreased. If Anunoby and Bridges can maintain some of their form once Brunson returns and Hart can regain his, the Knicks could still be a dangerous unit in the playoffs. Anunoby has made three or more threes in each of his past four games, shooting 46.4% from deep across that span, and he’s attempted 25.8% of New York’s triples while he’s been on the floor.
Milwaukee has been a slightly below-average three-point defending unit this season, allowing the 13th-most makes per game this season, which is mostly a function of volume; because Antetokounmpo is such an imposing interior defender, the Bucks have forced opponents to settle for threes at the league’s eighth-highest rate. Even with Towns’ solid interior play — of the 28 players who attempt at least two post-ups per game, he’s fourth in points per possession — attacking Kuzma or Prince on the perimeter through either Bridges or Anunoby seems like a more appealing alternative than challenging the Greek Freak.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
