My MLB Prop Bets for today are ready and waiting for you to tail on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below, I’ll give three bets I like for tonight’s game, which kicks off around 7:05 p.m. ET. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for daily MLB info and bets @SBuchanan24.
MLB Prop Bets for March 28, 2025
Boston Red Sox Team Total over 4.5 runs -105
The Red Sox look to be in a prime spot to put up some offense against Rangers starter Jack Leiter. We didn’t see much of him last year, as he threw just 35 2/3 innings. Over that span, however, he posted an 8.83 ERA with an xERA of 6.25. His command was shaky, evidenced by a 4.2 BB/9, a trend he repeated during Spring Training. Both sides of the plate hit him hard, with lefties posting a .364 wOBA and righties at .404. The Red Sox’s expected lineup for tonight hits fastballs and sliders well, which are Leiter’s two main pitches. The Sox lineup has a combined .374 wOBA and .244 ISO against fastballs and a .322 wOBA with a .225 ISO against sliders. I think Leiter is in for a short appearance tonight.
Oneil Cruz over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs -120
Cruz is facing off against Connor Gillispie tonight, a matchup I want to exploit. Gillispie relies heavily on fastballs, throwing them 53% of the time based on available data. Fastballs from a right-handed pitcher like Gillispie have been a sweet spot for Cruz, who boasts a .438 wOBA and a .208 ISO against them. He’s also surrounded in the lineup by teammates who excel against fastballs, creating RBI and run-scoring opportunities. Both Bryan Reynolds and Joey Bart posted a wOBA over .400 against that pitch last season. Gillispie tends to surrender a lot of fly balls, with a fly ball rate never dipping below 45% in either the minors or majors. The opportunities should be there for the Pirates—and Cruz in particular—tonight.
Want to see who is pitching today? Check out our Probable Pitchers article to see today’s matchups.
Seattle Mariners over 12.5 total bases -105
Jeffrey Springs will take the hill for the Athletics tonight, going up against the Mariners. I like this spot for Seattle, facing a pitcher who has thrown just 49 innings over the last two seasons. The Mariners excel at hitting fastballs, especially from left-handed pitchers. Their expected lineup last season posted a combined .378 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 14% BB% against lefty fastballs. Springs looked shaky in Spring Training, allowing 12 runs (nine earned) on 25 hits, including three home runs, over 18 1/3 innings. This Mariners team is patient and waits for their pitch, which could drive up Springs’ pitch count. Getting into the Athletics’ bullpen is a plus for opposing offenses, as they lack quality relievers beyond Mason Miller. Solid contact in this game should push the Mariners past their team total of 12.5 bases.
If you’re new to this market, it’s worth noting how total bases work. They count only from hits—walks don’t contribute. For example, if Julio Rodriguez hits a home run, that’s four bases toward the team total. Any combination of hits exceeding 12.5 bases for the Mariners would cash the over.
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