At long last, the 2025 MLB season is here. That also means the most exciting prop bet in all of sports is back: the NRFI. No runs in the first inning sounds simple on paper, but this isn’t a wager for the weak-hearted. Even the best pitchers in baseball take some time to settle into a game, making their first few at-bats the perfect time for hitters to strike. Figuring out which arms thrive early, and which lineups don’t, is key to cashing in on this prop.
Before Friday night’s eight-game slate gets started, here are two NRFI bets worth placing on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Marlins NRFI (-135)
Let’s get an obvious bet out of the way first. Both the Marlins and Pirates have earned their reputations as lightweights at the plate. The two offenses ranked in the bottom seven in runs scored last season, struggling at the start of games. Pittsburgh owned baseball’s third-worst rate of first inning runs scored (YRFI) last season (21.6%), while Miami was tenth-worst (25.93%).
Taking the mound for the Buccos tonight will be Mitch Keller. The former All-Star held opponents to a .212 batting average in the first inning last season. On the other side, the Fish will turn to Connor Gillespie, who pitched just eight innings for Cleveland in 2024. An unproven arm doesn’t inspire confidence, but Pittsburgh only earned one baserunner during its first time through the order yesterday. There’s a good chance that level of hitting incompetence continues on Friday.
Red Sox vs. Rangers NRFI (-120)
Red Sox-Rangers, on paper, should be a battle between two of the American League’s best offenses. That wasn’t the case on Thursday, as the two clubs remained deadlocked at 2-2 until Wilyer Abreu’s three-run homer in the ninth. In fact, the outfielder drove in four of Boston’s five runs during this contest. The rest of the lineup accounted for a total of just three hits. Texas’ starter tonight, Jack Leiter, was awful in 2024 (8.83 ERA). However, he held opponents to a .200 first inning batting average last season.
Tanner Houck will get the nod for the Sox. It was an up-and-down 2024 for the right-hander, who went from first-half All-Star to second-half liability. Still, the 28-year-old was terrific in the first inning, recording a 3.00 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .216 batting average. Texas’ top three hitters were ice-cold at the plate yesterday (2-for-11), making this an under the radar NRFI play.
