The grind begins.
It’s easy to get excited about the festivities of Opening Day, but this is when the real baseball season starts. That was just one of 162. We’ve got a long summer to go.
Strap in and get ready to win some money on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my best MLB bets for this evening’s slate on the diamond.
New York Mets at Houston Astros
Astros ML (-125)
I promise you. By the end of the season, you’ll look back and realize that it wasn’t very often that the Astros were only this slight a favorite at home with Hunter Brown on the mound. The right-hander didn’t start 2024 all that well, but once he found his rhythm, Brown was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half. To wit, in 71.2 innings after the All-Star break, Brown managed a 2.26 ERA and a 2.75 FIP. In that same span, Brown held opposing hitters to a paltry .221/.279/.288 slash line with a microscopic .255 wOBA. In short, he broke out.
On the other side, the Mets’ rotation gets thin very quickly thanks to some injury woes, and while Tylor Megill showed flashes of dominance last year, he’s also in possession of a career 4.56 ERA. With each team trotting out an above average lineup, the difference in this contest will be pitching. To me, Houston has the clear advantage.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Over 8.5 (-115)
8.5 runs is not a small total, yet it still feels like the book is giving too much credit to the name value of both Kevin Gausman and Charlie Morton — both of whom have seen better days in an MLB uniform. We’re also directly on the heels of these squads combining for seven home runs on Opening Day, so forgive me if I’m envisioning some more fireworks in Toronto.
Let’s start with Morton, now in his age 41 season. Though the overall results in 2024 were acceptable for a backend starter, Morton finished the season with a 4.49 xERA and a 4.46 FIP, both of which were his highest marks in a decade. His fastball velocity dipped (94.3) and his strikeout rate followed (23.8%). This also led to Morton surrendering 42 opponent barrels, a figure which ties his career-high. I’m not here to suggest that the veteran RHP is suddenly going to be terrible, but time comes for us all. Morton simply isn’t a name to fear anymore.
Gausman is trending towards the same fate. Granted, you only have to go back to 2023 to find a time when Gausman was one of the league’s best arms, yet a dip from a 31.1% strikeout rate to a 21.4% strikeout rate in 2024 is incredibly alarming — and not something I’m willing to completely chalk up to a Spring Training ailment. Gausman posted a 4.71 xERA last season. I definitely wouldn’t be shocked to see him have a rocky outing versus Baltimore, which would open the door for the Blue Jays underwhelming bullpen to get involved, too.
