March Madness is into the deep stages, and we have a pair of Elite Eight games on Saturday to determine who reaches the Final Four. Let’s breakdown some best bets and predictions on the card.
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No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Florida
San Francisco, CA – Saturday 6:09pm ET
The Gators have gotten out to sluggish starts in the last couple of NCAA Tournament games, but they’ve closed strong. I think that has a chance to change on Saturday, catching a Texas Tech team riding the high of highs. The Red Raiders completed an absurd comeback over Arkansas on Thursday night, needing overtime to do so. Tech reached as high as 35-1 on the moneyline with under five minutes left in the game, and instantly becomes one of the great Sweet Sixteen comebacks of all-time.
Now the focus quickly shifts to a stronger and deeper Florida team, and I think that could lead to some issues. While Texas Tech is a very good team, Florida seems to have better and deeper pieces everywhere on the floor, outside of JT Toppin. That said, Derik Queen got his on Thursday night, but the Gators were still capable of dominating. The Gators should be more capable of limiting Toppin compared to Queen, and have a slew of bigs to throw at him over the course of the game.
I like Florida to get off to a strong start in this one, and keep its foot on the gas. The Gators have been good at breaking away late, so I’m fine laying the points here. But with the double result fairly priced, I’ll back Florida to go wire-to-wire in this one and advance to the Final Four.
March Madness Pick: Florida Halftime/Fulltime (-145) 1.5-units
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 Duke
Newark, NJ – Saturday 8:49pm ET
Alabama is coming off an absurd performance from downtown against BYU, led by Mark Sears knocking down 10 from distance. The Tide took 66 field goals in the game — 51 of them were beyond the arc. If they go cold, things could get rough against Duke, but ‘Bama just keeps coming at you with offense, and much like Arizona did, should be able to hang in this game.
The Crimson Tide are an impressive 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and have only been getting more than 6.5 points on one occasion — an outright win at Auburn catching 7.5. Alabama has the skill, size and depth to stick with the Blue Devils, but the major key to this game will be defense. Assuming ‘Bama doesn’t drop another 113 points, it’s going to need to come up with some stops against this Duke team. But again, if Arizona could find ways to keep putting up points to stay in the game, I absolutely trust Nate Oats’ squad to do the same.
When favored by seven points or less this season, Duke is just 2-4 ATS, including three outright losses. Those six games came against Louisville, North Carolina and Auburn, with the outright losses to Kentucky, Kansas and Clemson. Outside of Auburn, that competition isn’t even close to what ‘Bama brings to the table.
It’s also tough to pass on the over in this one. Duke should be able to score, and just put up 100 of its own points against Arizona. I’m still on the fence about how I’ll ultimately play this game, but to be transparent, part of that has to do with my Alabama futures. I’ll update on Twitter as we get closer to tip with exactly how I’ll play it, but I do think we see a very good game and a very high scoring game. This one has the potential to be an all-timer.
March Madness Pick: Alabama +7.5 and/or OVER 174.5
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
