Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a 50% chance to play tonight at home versus the Knicks. With industry ownership projections expecting Giannis to be around 70-80% owned on tonight’s DraftKings tournament slate, the Greek Freak’s status is unquestionably the most important lingering news item on tonight’s slate.
With Damian Lillard sidelined indefinitely and Bobby Portis suspended, Giannis has to carry a lot of the load for Milwaukee. Giannis averages a 34% usage rate, 17% rebound rate and 36% assist rate in addition to 1.6 DraftKings Points Per Minute with Lillard, Portis and former teammate Khris Middleton off the court. He’d project for massive DFS upside, as well as prop bet impact, with a huge 46.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook.
In fact, Unabated’s bet simulation tools project 11.2% Expected Value on the over for Giannis’s 46.5 PRAs line, one of the best bets on today’s slate. Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would expect Giannis to put up 30.5 points, 13.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists. The sky is the limit if he’s active tonight and reaches his outer band of production.
If Giannis sits, there’d be a huge impact on his remaining teammates’ value in DFS and prop bet markets. Here’s how Unabated NBA would project some of the Bucks with available betting markets whether Giannis sits or plays:
- Kyle Kuzma projects for 20.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists (16.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists if Giannis plays)
- Brook Lopez projects for 15.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists (14.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists if Giannis plays)
- Taurean Prince projects for 11.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists (8.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists if Giannis plays)
In addition to these players, guys like Kevin Porter Jr, AJ Green and Gary Trent look like better plays in DraftKings DFS tournaments and there would be major Expected Value on the betting markets if Giannis is out. Kyle Kuzma projects for an otherworldly 55.9% EV on his over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line if Giannis is out, while Taurean Prince would see an incredibly high 38.6% EV on his over 14.5 PRAs line, as well.
It’s not a surprise that Giannis’ ball dominant ways, particularly with Damian Lillard also out, would have huge impact on tonight’s Knicks-Bucks game. But the magnitude of effects it would have on DFS and prop bets makes it crucial to keep an eye on Giannis’s status. Knicks-Bucks tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET, the second to last on tonight’s slate of NBA games.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.