There are six games on the late slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 7:05 pm ET. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
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OF Jarred Kelenic, Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, $2,600
Kelenic is the one platoon bat in the Braves lineup, but with a righty on the mound for the Padres, he should be in the lineup. He will likely bat ninth in the order, but that should keep the ownership low and make him a viable wrap-around stack candidate.
In his career, Kelenic has hit 39 of his 47 home runs against right-handed pitching. Randy Vasquez is a righty and had a paltry 5.69 K/9 with a 4.7 FIP in 98 innings last season. His swinging strike rate was only 8.1% while the chase rate was 27.4%. He allowed a maxEV of 119.2 mph.
Petco Park is a pitcher’s park but, over the last three years, it’s been above average for home runs by left-handed batters in two of those seasons.
SP Griffin Canning, New York Mets at Houston Astros, $6,700
Canning was atrocious last season, posting a 5.26 FIP, 6.82 K/9 and 1.63 HR/9 in 171.2 innings. But there’s reasons for optimism. For starters, he had posted a K/9 over 9.0 in the prior four seasons and had a FIP below 4.4 in three of those campaigns. The biggest variable, though, is that he is no longer a member of the Angels.
The Mets signed Canning to a $4.25 million contract because they saw potential and felt like their advanced technology and training methods could unearth gold. Well, in 14.1 spring training innings, Canning struck out 22 and posted a 1.88 ERA.
It’s early in the season, so there are no data points to rely on. As a result, Canning’s ownership should be extremely low and there’s a ton of profit potential here if the changes are in fact real. In addition, this isn’t the same Astros offense of glory years, and with Canning being the second-lowest priced pitcher, that allows more money for bats while providing a unique lineup.
1B Rowdy Tellez, Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics, $2,200
The left-handed Tellez has one job, and one job only; crush right-handed pitching. In his career, his ISO is .214 against righties. He faces one in Osvaldo Bido, who is predictably much better against right-handed batters than he is against left-handed hitters. Bido’s career FIP is 4.73 against left-handed bats, while the HR/9 rockets from 0.15 to 1.03.
T-Mobile Park suppresses offense, but Tellez is priced near the minimum and is always in play to put a ball in the seats anywhere, anytime.
