Talk about peaking at the right time: the Houston Rockets are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with the league’s fourth-best net rating across that span. In the four-team race for the West’s second seed — i.e., the race to not face the Oklahoma City Thunder until the conference finals — the Rockets have opened up a 1.5-game lead on the Denver Nuggets and a 2.5-game edge on the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies. In a conference as competitive as the West, the margins are always tight.
Houston’s lone All-Star, Alperen Şengün, has steered a steady ship across that span, making an impact even when his shot hasn’t been falling. In his last 10 games, Şengün has averaged 17.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game.
Tonight, the Rockets have a chance to solidify their grip on the West’s second seed as they travel to face the woeful Utah Jazz for a 9 p.m. ET clash.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is a 13-point favorite and the total is set for 227.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Şengün.
Best Alperen Şengün Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Alperen Şengün U20.5 Points (-125)
I’m fairly convinced that Şengün’s not going to have to play in the fourth quarter at all against a Utah team that has already been fined $100,000 for tanking this season and has had the league’s second-worst net rating since the All-Star break. The Jazz ruled out shooting guard Jordan Clarkson for the season earlier today — although, to be fair, he’s been in and out of the lineup all season — and are still without John Collins because of an ankle sprain. Former All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen has fallen ill and will miss a fifth straight game, and he’s only appeared in five games since the break.
The X-factor for Şengün is the fact that Rockets wing Amen Thompson is questionable with soreness in the left ankle that he sprained on March 8, which held him out of Tuesday’s win over the Atlanta Hawks. In the six games that Thompson missed earlier this month, Şengün’s scoring increased slightly, as he topped the 20-point threshold three times, although it had more to do with increased efficiency than increased usage. Backup center Steven Adams is also questionable with a wrist injury, but Şengün’s minutes haven’t really been contingent on Adams’ availability.
Alperen Şengün O2.5 Steals + Blocks (+124)
Despite his athletic limitations and youth, Şengün is no longer a defensive liability. In terms of post deterrence, the 22-year-old Turk ranks near the middle of the pack in terms of field goal percentage allowed on shots inside 10 feet among 47 centers who have appeared in 50 or more games this season. Advanced numbers also like his impact: by defensive win shares, he ranks fourth this season, and by defensive box plus-minus, he’s 12th. In fact, Şengün is the only player in the NBA this season who has amassed 400 defensive rebounds, 75 steals, and 50 blocks. Plus, he’s gotten at least one steal and one block in each of his last three games, including two in which he topped three combined stocks.
Given his defensive inconsistency — in the two games before his most recent stretch, he hadn’t recorded either a steal or a block — this is far from a guarantee. But he’ll never be more likely to do it than he is against Utah, which has allowed the most steals and third-most blocks per game since the All-Star break. Unsurprisingly, Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier, and Walker Kessler — three of the Jazz’s four best players with Markkanen, Collins, and Clarkson sidelined — all rank among the 100 most-frequently blocked players this season, and Collier, George, and Collin Sexton all rank in the top 50 in total turnovers.
