The Memphis Grizzlies are stuck in the morass of the Western Conference, at the back of a four-team race for the conference’s second seed, which will be rewarded by not having to face the Oklahoma City Thunder until the conference finals.
If the playoffs started today, Memphis would be the fifth seed, with the Los Angeles Lakers holding the tiebreaker and, by extension, home-court advantage in the first round. The Grizzlies’ reward for a hypothetical series victory against Los Angeles? A matchup with the Thunder.
Memphis might as well see where it is, which is why tonight’s 8 p.m. clash against Oklahoma City is important. The Thunder will be without Aaron Wiggins, with Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams questionable. For the Grizzlies, Ja Morant is out, but to be fair, Morant has been in and out of the lineup all season. As has been the case when the high flyer is unavailable, Jaren Jackson Jr., the 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year, will undertake the role of leading man.
Memphis is a 10.5-point underdog tonight at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total is set to 237.5. Below, I’ve outlined my favorite prop bet centered around the Grizzlies’ (likely) future supermax man.
Best Jaren Jackson Jr. Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jaren Jackson Jr. U26.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
Jackson’s stats haven’t taken a major increase this season when Morant has been unavailable; in the 29 games he’s played without No. 12 this season, his scoring average has seen a slight uptick to 23.1 points, from 21.8 alongside him. Instead, it’s been Memphis’ complementary pieces, particularly shooting guard Desmond Bane, who have benefited the most from Morant’s frequent injuries. Jackson has been shooting poorly as of late; in his last five games, all of which came without Morant, he is averaging just 19.8 points per game and shooting only 48.2% from the field. He hasn’t been much of a factor on the boards, either, averaging a measly 3.8 rebounds per game.
Jackson’s recent struggles don’t bode well for his chances of producing against Oklahoma City, which is on track to finish with the best defense in the league by more than three points per 100 possessions, the largest gap between the best and second-best defenses since defensive rating became an official stat in 1996-97. In particular, Jackson has a bad matchup against a now-healthy Chet Holmgren, against whom opponents have shot 7.8 percentage points worse than usual, including 16.1 percentage points worse within 10 feet.
Jaren Jackson Jr. U0.5 Steals (+135)
Arguably the scariest thing about this Thunder team is how much it dominates in turnover differential. Not only does Oklahoma City force the most turnovers in the league — 17.1 per game, nearly a full turnover more than the next-best team — it also gives away the second-fewest, 1.1 fewer than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are the third-best ball-handling team. Oklahoma City ranks near the bottom of the league in both seconds per touch and dribbles per touch, so opponents have fewer opportunities to rack up steals amid the Thunder’s lightning-quick ball movement.
Jackson is the rare center who has recorded almost as many steals as blocks this season, and he’s nabbed at least one in each of his past four games, tied for his third-longest streak of the season. But he had averaged 1.5 steals per contest prior to New Year’s Day and only 1.1 since then, so the premise of him finishing steal-less is more reasonable than it would’ve been a few months ago.
