It’s Opening Day, so let’s go over some basics for those looking to dip their toe in MLB DFS for the first time. You might be saying, Garion, aren’t the pitchers already ranked by price? Yes. They are. How observant of you. However, these rankings — my rankings — aren’t necessarily a reflection of skill. Instead, they’ll account for specific matchup quirks and even ownership projection.
With that in mind, here are my top five starting pitchers on DraftKings for Thursday afternoon’s nine-game featured slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $500K Opening Day Special [$100K to 1st]
1. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates ($10,000)
Skenes is the most expensive pitcher on this slate and it’s hard to argue with that result. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year was dominant in his 23 starts in 2024, registering a 1.96 ERA to go along with a 2.44 FIP and a 33.1% strikeout rate. If you don’t include Skenes’ last outing of the season in New York — he threw just two innings — the right-hander managed to exceed 25 FPTS in exactly half of his outings. Needless to say, the man carries quite a lot of tantalizing upside into every outing.
If that wasn’t enough, Skenes has arguably the best matchup you could possibly draw on Thursday in the Marlins, who finished 27th in both wOBA (.296) and wRC+ (86) in 2024. Somehow, things project even more poorly in 2025. PECOTA has Miami as the league’s lowest-scoring team and injuries certainly aren’t helping. Connor Norby (oblique) and Jesus Sanchez (oblique), two bats with promise, are already on the IL. Skenes will be popular, but you can find a way to differentiate your lineups later.
2. Zach Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies ($9,500)
Wheeler will be 35-years-old in May, but the right-hander doesn’t appear to have lost a step coming into 2025. Well, his fastball velocity has dipped slightly in each of the last four seasons, but Wheeler is still directly on the heels of maybe the best campaign of his career, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 2.80 xERA across 200.0 innings of work. Wheeler’s 28.5% strikeout rate was also his best mark since 2021. Again, he was fantastic in 2024.
The same can not be said about the Nationals. Washington’s bats struggled to produce, specifically in the power department, winding up as the 29th-ranked squad in ISO (.132) and home runs (135). The only team worse? A White Sox team that was close to setting the MLB record for losses. It’s not the kind of company you want to be keeping. Free agent additions Nathaniel Lowe ($3,600) and Josh Bell ($3,400) should raise the offensive bar, and full seasons from Dylan Crews ($4,100) and James Wood ($4,900) could make a huge difference, yet this remains a young lineup without a ton of thump. Wheeler should take advantage.
3. Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins ($7,700)
Sandy is back, y’all! The 2022 NL Cy Young award winner missed all of 2024 after Tommy John surgery, but he looked like his old self in Spring Training, firing 100 mph fastballs and not allowing a single earned run over 12.1 innings of action. Alcantara, even at his best, has never been an elite strikeout artist and he’s got some workload concerns heading into 2025, but those are lessened on Opening Day, where any starter going seven frames feels like a pipe dream.
Alcantara might only go five on Thursday, yet they should be five really good innings against a Pirates lineup that ranked 28th in wRC+ (86), 26th in ISO (.137) and fifth in strikeout rate (24.7%) in 2024. It’s not like Pittsburgh did much to address its offensive issues in the offseason, either. 37-year-old Tommy Pham ($3,600) is the new leadoff hitter, while Spencer Horwitz (wrist) is still recovering from a recent surgery. It’s pretty bleak. Even at a reduced price, Alcantara’s ownership will likely be low, with many people unwilling to pair him with Skenes. Don’t be one of those people. In fact, Alcantara might be the best way to make your Skenes build unique.
4. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox ($9,000)
There are a lot of great pitchers in poor matchups on Opening Day, but Crochet is the one you want to trust to overcome that situation. This isn’t just about his stats from Spring Training, but goodness was he good in Spring Training. In 15.2 innings of work, Crochet allowed a single earned run and struck out 30. You read that right. 30. The thing to remember in conjunction with those numbers is that this level of success didn’t come completely out of nowhere. Before the White Sox submarined the lefty’s second-half in 2024, Crochet registered a 2.37 FIP and a 35.2% strikeout rate prior to the All-Star break.
If Crochet is truly that guy — he’s matchup proof. I truly believe that the Rangers have one of the five most dangerous lineups in baseball this season, particularly with the additions of Joc Pederson ($4,200) and Jake Burger ($4,400). However, Crochet might simultaneously be one of the five best starters in the world. He might also lead the league in strikeouts if he stays healthy. I’ll always take a chance on that level of upside.
5. Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians ($7,000)
Editor’s Note: Guardians SP Tanner Bibee (illness) has been scratched from today’s game vs. the Royals.
If there’s a pitcher priced at $7,000 or below that the public is going to gravitate towards, it’s Yusei Kikuchi ($6,900), who gets the privilege of facing off with the White Sox. However, I’m willing to zag with the slightly more expensive Bibee.
How expensive is Bibee? Well, a lot more to Cleveland than he’ll cost you on Opening Day. The right-hander is fresh off inking a $48 million extension last week, which should give you some idea of how highly regarded Bibee is within his organization. The 26-year-old pitched to a 3.47 ERA and a 3.56 FIP in 2024, complimenting those ratios with a 26.3% strikeout rate. On a normal slate, Bibee would never be this cheap — especially in a matchup with the Royals.
Kansas City might employ a future MVP in Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,900), but its also a squad that struggled to do much with the bats last September. Specific to Thursday, that issue might only be exacerbated by the fact that Vinnie Pasquantino ($4,600; hamstring) isn’t at 100% health. I’d expect Bibee to put together a quality outing at Kauffman Stadium.
