March Madness returns on Thursday for the Sweet Sixteen. Let’s breakdown picks and a prediction for BYU vs. Alabama.
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No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama
Newark, NJ – Thursday 7:09pm ET
BYU versus ‘Bama is set to be played like an NBA game, in the sense that the pace will be rapid, and 3-pointers will be going up like we’re watching a Celtics versus Warriors game. The Crimson Tide entered the NCAA Tournament ranking fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency and playing at the fastest tempo of any team. They average over 90 points per game, and are coming off a game in which they scored 80 points against the slowest possible matchup they could ask for — St. Mary’s ranks eighth in defensive efficiency and 359th in tempo.
Enter the Cougars, who rank 11th in offensive efficiency, and just put up a combined 180 points with Wisconsin in regulation. Keep in mind that BYU is 180th in tempo, while the Badgers are 152nd. Now picture what the pace should look like against the fastest team in the country, and we have a game that could easily be played into the 90’s.
Both teams have their issues defensively, as Alabama ranks 32nd in the country, and BYU 68th. Outside of pushing the pace for plenty of easy buckets, we should see insane volume from downtown in this game. These are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation, and neither is afraid to let it fly — ‘Bama has a 47% 3-point rate, and BYU’s is even higher at 50%.
The over can be “square,” it can be “public,” or really whatever you want to call it. It’s an obvious play that a ton of people will be on. But there’s just no chance the pace of play of this game doesn’t play to the over. Now, the teams could go cold and miss shots to put the game under, but the pace will absolutely play to the over between these two.
Playing as the underdog has not meant slowing the game down for the Cougars at all, going over the total in seven of the last eight when priced as the dog. ‘Bama has also been playing to the over, regardless of price, going over in eight of the last 12. Just since March 5, Alabama has gone over totals of 178.5 or higher three times already.
I played this one at the opening price of 171.5 in our DK Betting Group, but was anticipating an open of 175. This is a play for me out to 175.5 for 2.5 units, and anything up to 179.5 is a play for less.
March Madness Pick: BYU/Alabama OVER 171.5 (-110) 2.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
