I’ve already written up a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for all of tonight’s March Madness Sweet Sixteen games here. I’m still hungry for some player prop action, however. And, specifically, we’ll be looking below at Cooper Flagg’s—otherwise known as The Maine Event’s—betting market relative to some of his advanced stats for tonight in the Sweet Sixteen game between Duke and Arizona.
Here’s a breakdown of Flagg’s tonight. I’ll also still be writing up predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
Cooper Flagg’s prop market for Duke vs. Arizona
Cooper Flagg’s prop market for tonight’s game on DraftKings Sportsbook is as follows: 22+ points, 2+ threes, 8+ rebounds, 5+ assists, and 35+ points, rebounds, and assists combined (PRA).
Arizona’s defense, while formidable, has shown cracks that Flagg can capitalize on. The Wildcats allow 49.6% from two-point range (No. 262 nationally), which should give Flagg a significant edge in the paint. His scoring potential is tied to his ability to exploit these defensive gaps, as he excels at driving to the basket and finishing inside. Arizona’s defense has struggled against versatile players like Flagg, who can score efficiently while also contributing across multiple stat lines.
Points
A cash on his 22+ points prop is certainly a possibility. However, Arizona’s adjusted defensive efficiency (No. 33 nationally) and ability to contest shots—especially in the half-court—will make it difficult for Flagg to reach that number with only scoring. Arizona’s defensive scheme is geared toward limiting isolation players. While Flagg is capable, a steady flow of points through his versatility in scoring, rebounding, and playmaking is a safer bet, especially when considering game script.
Rebounds
Now, regarding the rebounds line—again, well within reach. Arizona’s defensive rebound percentage is a concerning No. 128 (34.1%), making it a challenge for them to box out players like Flagg. With his motor and anticipation, he should clear this with relative ease, especially after securing 9+ rebounds in the previous tournament games.
Assists
Five assists is another solid choice for Flagg. While he’s averaging 3.5 assists per game, Arizona has been vulnerable against good passers; they allow 13.3 assists per game on average in March Madness this year.
What I’m saying is: you really can’t go wrong with this young man tonight in Newark.
However, the most value lies in the 35+ points, rebounds, and assists combined. Flagg’s all-around contribution is where he excels, and Arizona’s defense—despite its strengths—lacks the ability to shut down multi-dimensional players. His free throw shooting (78.9%) and high frequency of attempts (4.3 FTA per game) will further pad his stat line in a close game where Flagg will be called upon to do it all. Since his ankle injury, Flagg’s minutes have remained consistent (32.3 MPG in March Madness), meaning he’ll have ample opportunities to hit these combined numbers.
Best bet: Cooper Flagg 35+ PRA (+100)
Tail the Maine Event to shine like a lighthouse in Newark tonight with me in the DKN betting group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
