I’ve already written up a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for all of tonight’s March Madness Sweet Sixteen games here. I’m still hungry for some player prop action, however. And, specifically, we’ll be looking below at JT Toppin’s betting market for tonight in his Sweet Sixteen game between Texas Tech and Alabama.
Here’s how I’ll play Toppin’s lines tonight. I’ll also still be writing up predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
Best JT Toppin prop bet for Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
JT Toppin 32+ Points + Rebounds + Assists
JT Toppin is locked in for a dominant performance in Texas Tech’s Sweet 16 showdown against Arkansas. The sophomore forward has been a consistent powerhouse, averaging 18.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. His efficiency is through the roof, shooting 56.2% from the field, placing him among the nation’s top 50 in field goal percentage. Toppin’s ability to take over games is undeniable, with 29 career double-doubles to his name, showcasing his all-around game in crucial moments.
In Texas Tech’s first round win against UNC Wilmington, Toppin was a force, posting 18 points, 11 rebounds, and three assists, shooting 9-of-13 from the field. He followed that up with an even more impressive performance in the Round of 32 against Drake, registering 22 points, 12 rebounds, and two assists, hitting 10-of-14 shots. These stats confirm Toppin’s versatility and consistency, making 32+ points, rebounds, and assists a very attainable goal for this matchup.
Toppin’s free-throw shooting has been another key to his effectiveness, with the sophomore shooting 76.5% from the line over the last five games, including a perfect six-for-six against Drake. This is crucial, especially given that Arkansas ranks 305th nationally in free-throw defense, allowing opponents to shoot 74.1% from the line.
In addition to his shooting, Toppin has been remarkably efficient, scoring 1.22 points per minute played. This high output shows that every minute he’s on the court, he’s contributing in a major way, especially when Arkansas’s defensive efficiency falters in transition and isolation plays.
Arkansas, despite their impressive Sweet 16 run, has vulnerabilities that Toppin can exploit. The Razorbacks have struggled against physical forwards, ranking outside the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom). Their lack of rim protection (No. 262 in two-point field goal defense) presents a major opportunity for Toppin, who thrives in the paint. Arkansas has allowed 49.6% shooting on two-pointers, and with Toppin’s ability to dominate inside, this matchup is tailor-made for him to rack up points and rebounds.
In addition to his offensive role, Toppin will have every chance to contribute in transition, as Arkansas’s defensive inefficiency in isolation plays (giving up 1.02 points per possession in those situations) will allow Toppin to break free. Given his consistent all-around production and his efficiency across the board, Toppin is primed to clear 32+ points + rebounds + assists in this Sweet 16 game.
Best bet: JT Toppin 32+ PRA (-110)
Tail JT Toppin, not Jonas Aidoo, to be the man we’re talking about tomorrow morning with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
