March Madness returns on Thursday for the Sweet Sixteen. Let’s breakdown some picks and a prediction for Arkansas vs. Texas Tech.
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No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
San Francisco, CA – Thursday 10:09pm ET
Not exactly your classic Cinderella here in the NIL era, but John Calipari has his 10th-seeded Razorbacks in the Sweet Sixteen. The path has been impressive, getting through Kansas and Saint John’s. While it was a down year for the Jayhawks, they still opened the preseason No. 1, and the Johnnies are just about as tough as they come, and boast the nation’s No. 1 ranked defensive efficiency.
Arkansas is finally playing up to its capabilities, and a lot of it has to do with getting healthy. Boogie Fland returned from an extended absence, and clearly gave his team a boost. Bodies have been in and out all season for the Hogs, but with the majority of their roster on the floor, they were able to put together two big wins last week in Providence. That said, they still did it without their leading scorer on the season, Adou Thiero, who averages 15.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals and almost a block a game in 26 appearances. Thiero is set to return to the lineup on Thursday for the first time in a little over a month. Just as Fland provided a spark for the Razorbacks last week, I expect the same from Thiero in some capacity on Thursday.
While it’s not a knock on Texas Tech, the Red Raiders have had the complete opposite path of Arkansas. They’ve gone through UNCW and Drake to get to this point, and are set for their toughest test yet, while Coach Cal and company have been playing up to this level throughout the tournament. Now, Texas Tech certainly is capable of playing against a big time opponent, but I’m expecting some struggles.
Drake ranks 46th in defensive efficiency, but clearly didn’t have the talent or athletes to keep up with the Red Raiders. Arkansas obviously has both, and ranks 20th in defensive efficiency. The key to the game here will be Arkansas getting stops. While the Kansas and St. John’s wins were very impressive, Texas Tech shoots the ball better than either of those teams. The Hogs will have to extend their defense to the perimeter a bit more, but I believe they’re capable.
Offensively is where Arkansas doesn’t grade out well, according to the metrics. The Razorbacks rank just 73rd in offensive efficiency this season, but I’m going to chalk that up to the injury issues. Now with their top two scorers on the floor together for the first time in months, I’m expecting Arkansas to be able to keep up offensively in this game, against a Tech defense that’s 37th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Hogs are now on an 8-1-1 ATS run in their last 10 games as an underdog, and I expect that to continue on Thursday night.
March Madness Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
