You may not think this is a matchup between two of the hotter teams in the league, but you’d be wrong. The quality of these Boston Celtics speaks for itself, and they’ve won 11 out of 12 in March, enough to get within striking distance of the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Phoenix Suns, dead and buried all of a month ago, have surged into the play-in race over the past weeks. They’re riding a four-game winning streak, including quality wins over the Cavaliers and Bucks, and now look to defeat another beast of the East. A win tonight would make them the ninth seed in the West and put them in pole position to host the first play-in game.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is a +6.5 home underdog for this primetime matchup. Let’s dig into some of the better player props for this star-studded affair.
Best Celtics Prop Bets
Jayson Tatum 4+ Threes (+125), 8+ Assists (+200)
UPDATE: Tatum has since been ruled out tonight.
There is a minor injury concern regarding Tatum’s ankle. He’s been a DNP three times in the last 11 games but went from doubtful to questionable tonight after feeling good in a morning shootaround. If he plays, I’d expect a full complement of minutes as the C’s make a last-minute push for the top seed.
Over his past 10 active games, Tatum is a tick below his season average from deep at 34%, yet still netting 3.5 makes per game. Big Deuce has managed to hit four long balls six times in those 10 games. Against a Phoenix defense that has few defenders capable of sticking with him, I’m confident in a bounce-back performance from distance.
In that same time period, Tatum’s assists have perked up, a possible side effect of the ankle hobbling him. He’s averaging a strong seven apples per game, up from 6.0 on the season. Like his three-pointers, Tatum has racked up 8+ assists in six of the last 10 games. This is his strongest value play on the board, in my eyes, and it is generously priced at +200. Drop the hammer on it.
Jaylen Brown Under 21.5 Points (-115)
Jayson Tatum isn’t the only star Celtics wing struggling through an injury. Jaylen Brown has only played in three of the past seven games and has scored 10, eight, and nine points in those three he did play in. It’s just as concerning that he’s taken 15, eight, and eight shots in those contests while only drawing two free throws. The box score matches what the eyes see — this is a guy struggling to find form with the injury hanging over his head.
His points over/under of 21.5 is slightly under his season average of 22.5 points to compensate for these struggles, but I don’t think it is enough. If the minute load since his injury (roughly 25 minutes) holds and the inability to generate shots continues, I don’t see him getting close to his season average.
Best Suns Prop Bets
Kevin Durant 30+ Points (+195) and 35+ Points (+550)
When Kevin Durant gets hot, the points tend to come in bunches.
Of course, I don’t need to tell you that one of the greatest scorers of all time can put the ball in the hoop. In the last two games against Cleveland and Milwaukee, he’s racked up 42 and 38 points, respectively. His nuclear scoring nights have come together all at once this season, and I’m betting on it happening again.
The 30+ points mark is already a value at nearly two-to-one odds, and I’d hit the 35+ mark as well in case his hot streak keeps up. The Suns are playing with renewed vigor and will need every point out of Durant to stay competitive in this one. Expect the Slim Reaper to deliver all night long with Boston’s two primary wing stoppers limited by injuries.
As an aside, I think Phoenix can cover this home spread, although I am more confident in the props than the result. Boston is on a roll, but also bogged down with injuries to their stars amid a long road trip. That, combined with Phoenix’s aforementioned winning streak, bodes well for a tight contest. Make sure you’re seated for this one.
