March basketball is always interesting, because for most teams, it doesn’t matter. Five teams in the East and four teams in the West are effectively condemned to miss the playoffs, and the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Boston Celtics are more or less locked into their seeds at the tops of their respective conferences.
But tonight’s nationally-televised action at Madison Square Garden matters. The New York Knicks had looked set to clinch the third seed in the East, but their advantage is now down to three games over the red-hot Indiana Pacers. Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, the LA Clippers are in seventh, just half a game behind the Golden State Warriors for the final spot above the Play-In Tournament.
The Clippers are four-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-170 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 218. Meanwhile, New York is +142 on the Moneyline.
Kawhi Leonard O22.5 Points (-115)
Leonard’s health is the X-factor in LA’s chances of ultimately making noise in the postseason, and, in fact, it might be the X-factor in the Western Conference playoff picture overall. The Klaw is that good, as one of three players — along with LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar — to win Finals MVP with two different franchises. Unfortunately for the Clippers’ Western Conference opponents, Leonard has looked every bit like his prime self since the All-Star break, averaging 24.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 2.0 steals per game on 50-42-75 shooting splits across that stretch while playing in all but four games and carrying a heavy workload. In his 28 games this season, LA has outscored its opponents by 8.8 points per 100 possessions.
New York’s trio of rangy wing defenders have all stepped up in the last nine games, since point guard Jalen Brunson suffered a sprained ankle that is expected to keep him out at least through the end of the week. OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges have combined to average 4.6 steals per game since Brunson’s injury, and Hart and Anunoby have both held opponents to significantly lower shooting percentages than usual when they’re the nearest defender. Anunoby will likely be tasked primarily with marking his former Toronto Raptors teammate, and while he’ll surely do a capable job, even Luguentz Dort couldn’t hold Leonard under 23 points. He’s reached that mark in six straight games and will make it seven tonight.
Josh Hart to Record a Double-Double (+140)
Hart is the ultimate role player — he defends at a high level, knocks down open shots, dishes smart passes to his teammates, and hustles every single play. He’s a nightly threat to record a double-double, whether that’s points and rebounds, points and assists, or — most uncommon — assists and rebounds. Hart has recorded 30 point-rebound double-doubles — the 13th-most in the league — nine of which he also recorded 10 assists in, plus one assist-and-rebound double-double, one of just five players to accomplish that feat this season. Since Brunson’s injury, he has recorded four double-doubles, including a 14-point, 20-board performance against the Clippers on March 7. He also had 11 assists last night against the Dallas Mavericks with point guard Miles McBride sidelined with the groin injury that will also keep him out tonight.
LA won’t make it easy for Hart, who, unlike other players of his level, isn’t a guarantee to score 10 points; of the league’s top 20 players by Basketball Reference’s Value over Replacement Player metric, Hart is the least potent scorer by nearly four points per game. Leonard is elite on the wings, even at age 33, but it’s likely that Hart will spend more of his time guarded by Norman Powell or Derrick Jones Jr. instead, neither of whom is as imposing a perimeter defender as Leonard. And while the Clippers have been dominant on the glass — thanks to Ivica Zubac — Hart has put up big rebounding numbers against other solid rebounders. The critical factor is that LA has allowed the 10th-most assists per game in its last nine games, making Hart a factor to reach 10 assists if he doesn’t snag 10 boards.
Norman Powell O2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
In the four games that Powell has played since he returned from, effectively, a 13-game absence due to hamstring and knee injuries, he’s shot just 14-for-39 (35.9%) from the field and four-for-14 (28.6%) from beyond the arc, hitting exactly one triple in each of the games. But this will be the Clippers’ first game in three days, so he should be back to his usual load and his hamstring should be healthier than before. When healthy, Powell — whose 41.9% three-point accuracy this season ranks seventh among 85 players who have appeared in at least 50 games and attempted at least five triples per game — is very, very good. He’s one of just 12 players this season who’s attempted at least 20 shots from each corner and from above the break and converted at a 40% or better clip from every spot.
This prop has more to do with my belief that Powell is due to find his form sooner rather than later than it does to do with the Knicks’ defense, although they’ve been merely average by both three-pointers allowed and opponent three-point percentage since Brunson’s injury. New York has conceded an average number of above-the-break threes over its past nine games and has allowed the ninth-fewest makes because of fluky shooting luck. Powell, a 42.1% three-point shooter from above the break, is due to capitalize.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
