Tarik, how I owe you so.
The reigning American League Cy Young winner pulled off an impressive triple crown, leading the league in wins, strikeouts, and ERA. He will always hold a special place in my heart for cashing in on the Cy Young long-shot future I placed on him.
Now, the 28-year-old will defend his crown, starting most difficultly: on the road against the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
Will the Bay Area native tap into his preternatural disdain for Dodger blue and shut down their superpowered lineup? Or will this West Coast murderers’ row force him to hit the showers early?
Top Skubal Prop Bets
Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+115)
In 31 starts last year, Skubal surrendered 4 or fewer hits 18 times. That includes a matchup against the Dodgers, where Skub held them to a paltry two hits across six innings. This time around, I think LA gets the better of him.
Shohei Ohtani is more than capable of creating problems by himself. Add in a recently healthy Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, the newly re-signed Teoscar Hernandez, and Will Smith, who tuned up the Cubs in the Japan openers. This poses a difficult task for Tarik.
I’m not expecting him to get outright shelled. With how deep he tends to go into games, he could give up 5 hits and still have a great outing. But it would sure surprise me to see him shut down this elite lineup for the second time in a row.
Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105)
More traffic on the bases? Against the guy who registered a 0.92 WHIP last season? I might be a little crazy.
Skubal allowed only 35 total walks in his 31 starts. He had nearly as many starts with no walks allowed (9) as with 2+ walks (11). So why am I willing to bet on the unlikely?
For one, this Dodgers team showed exceptional plate discipline in the Japan games. 15 walks across 2 games and 80 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at. Even against the master of controlling the plate, they’ll be patient and work the zone well.
As an added bit of juice, the Dodgers drew more intentional walks last year than any other team in the majors. It’s not a massive edge, but it is an edge. With Skubal’s strikeout proficiency and the damned-if-you-do, damned if you don’t nature of this Dodgers lineup, manager A.J. Hinch may consider handing out a free base at some point in the contest.
In short, Skubal should have more traffic to deal with than usual. We’ll see how he handles it.
