The question on all of our minds: what can’t Paul Skenes do?
He steamrolled his way through the league to the tune of a 1.96 ERA last year. He started the All-Star game for the National League. Took home NL Rookie of the Year and only missed out on a Cy Young award due to his inning count.
Now, Skenes will look to take the first step in what may be a Cy Young campaign with his first of many Opening Day starts. For the second year in a row, his Pirates open the season on the road in Miami, a series they swept this past season. Let’s take a look at how to bet the young phenom.
Top Skenes Prop Bets
9+ Strikeouts +190
In 23 starts last year, Skenes recorded 9+ strikeouts on seven occasions. It wasn’t for a lack of trying; he averaged just over 5 2/3 innings per outing with an 11.5 strikeouts per 9 figure. Pittsburgh was careful to limit his workload as a hard thrower with many years of dominance, health permitting, in his future.
I think he can find his way to 9 Ks for two reasons. One, this Marlins offense is abysmal. They were 27th in total runs last year, and it would take some serious development for them to place any higher. In his sole start against Miami last year, Skenes tuned them up for 9 punchouts over 6 innings of one-run ball.
Second, Skenes debuted a new pitch this spring, because of course he did. Adding a triple-digit cutter into the mix feels outright unfair. As if he wasn’t difficult enough to hit. This gives him a new weapon against left-handed hitters, whom he dominated last year using only his fastball and splitter. You think it’s his deadly four seamer, and suddenly it’s in on your hands, blowing your bat into pieces. Good luck, everyone.
Because Miami’s offense is a farce, I’d expect him to go deep into this game, generating plenty of chances to make these fish go down swinging. This brings me to my favorite play for Skenes.
Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
Out of the 23 times Skenes toed the rubber last year, he recorded 16 or more outs 17 times, despite the limitations placed on him by the higher-ups. He won’t be Old Hoss Radbourne this year, but I’d imagine the leash will be a bit longer this season. No limitations to build on his 5 2/3 inning average from last year, a feeble Marlins lineup in front of him, and a Cy Young candidacy to prove.
So why is his line so low? And why is the under favored? Beats me. That’s for the calculator guys to know and for us to find out.
Pittsburgh may get so comfortably ahead by the fifth inning that Derek Shelton decides to save his arm for more trying contests, but I wouldn’t bet on the 24th-ranked offense from last year to light it up against Sandy Alcantara, who looked to be back in Cy Young form himself this spring.
My money would be on a protracted pitcher’s duel in this one. Two elite pitchers that will be carving through uninspiring lineups, both with plenty to prove. If Alcantara is working his magic on the Pittsburgh lineup, I’d expect Skenes to see the sixth inning and beyond.
