Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects James Harden to have a 50% chance to play tonight at Madison Square Garden versus the Knicks. Harden is questionable with right foot soreness and his status matters quite a bit for tonight’s DraftKings DFS tournaments and prop bet markets.
Harden has been back to his usage monster ways with Kawhi Leonard in and out of the lineup this year. Harden’s 29.9% usage rate leads the team, while his 37.2% assist rate trails only Ben Simmons in terms of season-long results. The ball is in Harden’s hands often for the Clippers, so his absence would be felt if he were to miss tonight’s game.
Unabated NBA currently projects Harden for 21.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 9.1 assists if he plays. While Harden is unlikely to be a popular play in DraftKings DFS tournaments tonight with that projection, he could have upside at low ownership with industry sources expecting him to be rostered by only 10% of players.
If Harden sits, you’d see increases in usage for key teammates like Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell, as well as more minutes trickling down to Kris Dunn, Bogdan Bogdanovic and others. Here’s how Harden’s teammates would look whether Harden sits or plays, according to Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections:
- Kawhi Leonard projects for 23.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists (21.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists if Harden plays)
- Ivica Zubac projects for 17.9 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists (16.7 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists if Harden plays)
- Norman Powell projects for 22.6 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists (19.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists if Harden plays)
- Kris Dunn projects for 6.4 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists (4.5 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists if Harden plays)
Harden’s potential absence would also open up huge value on DraftKings Sportsbook according to Unabated’s bet simulation tools; Norman Powell projects for an incredibly high 47.7% Expected Value on his over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook if Harden is out. Ivica Zubac would project for 15.3% EV on over 30.5 PRAs, while Kawhi Leonard would project for 6.3% EV on his over 32.5 PRAs line, as well.
As is always the case in the NBA, key players missing time creates a lot of opportunity for their teammates, as well as for bettors and DFS players. Keep an eye on James Harden’s status as we get closer to the game’s 7:30 p.m. ET tip off.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
