This week’s PGA TOUR event takes us out to Houston, Texas, for the Houston Open, a full-field event that features 144 golfers and a Friday cutline.
The event will be held at Memorial Park Golf Course for the fifth season in a row. I wrote more about Memorial Park in my PGA Cheat Sheet this week. The course is a longer Par 70 at 7,400+ yards and saw a winning score of just 12-under last season (Stephan Jaeger). Here’s a little more of what I wrote about Memorial Park this week.
“In 2020, this venue played as the 12th-toughest on the PGA TOUR, and the field here had a tough time with just about everything. Driving accuracy was particularly down compared to the PGA TOUR average, as players hit about seven to eight percent fewer fairways than usual. Despite the penal rough, it still played as a driver-heavy course, as Driving Distance for the week was over 295 yards and well above the PGA TOUR average. Driving the ball well here is certainly a theme to be keyed in on this week as well. Tony Finau led the field by a wide margin in Good Drive % in 2022 and gained over 4.0 strokes OTT. Many of the other top performers the year Finau won also performed well off the tee.
Scrambling around these greens is also difficult, and it’s worth mentioning Carlos Ortiz gained +6.1 strokes Around the Green on his way to winning in 2020. Stephan Jaeger, the 2024 winner, took a similar approach, gaining over 9.7 strokes ATG and Putting, while just remaining slightly positive vs. the field on approach and off the tee. In 2021, Jason Kokrak leaned heavily on his ball striking as he gained 6.1 strokes on approach, but he also gained a very impressive 8.7 strokes putting.
A solid comparison for this week may be Copperhead at the Innisbrook Golf Resort, the host of last week’s Valspar Championship. Both Memorial and Copperhead feature five par 3s and three par 5s as well as harder-to-hit fairways and greens strewn around a tree-lined flatter course. We’ve also seen a lot of the same names pop up at both venues as Finau, Sam Burns and Kokrak (2021 winner of this event) have all posted top-10 finishes at these courses. Both courses also put a lot of stress on long iron play and this week, there will be six par 4s at Memorial Park, which runs over 450 yards in length, requiring lots of approaches from 175+ yards..”
Despite the tough setup, players can go low here if they are hitting their irons well. There is some poorer weather in the forecast as we have higher winds to deal with and some potential rain, and that’s likely to make short games very important this week.
DraftKings Pick6 has Full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals and finishing positions to use for your Pick6 lineups.
Below, I’ll give you my best ideas for this week’s Houston Open DraftKings Pick6 lineups for the full event.
Alex Smalley Better Than 37.5 Finishing Position
This looks like a great spot for Alex Smalley to break out. The American had some understandable regression at the Valspar, where he missed the cut a week after being in contention at one of the biggest events of the season in the PLAYERS (where he finished T-14). Despite the step back, there is no denying that Smalley is playing some great golf.
He’s landed five top-20 finishes across eight PGA starts this season and sits fifth in strokes gained total stats, sixth in SG: OTT stats, and fifth in SG: ATG stats over the last 24 rounds. He’s also shown a propensity for spiking with the putter on these Poa overseeded green surfaces, having gained 5.2 strokes putting a few weeks ago in Phoenix, a course that features similar surfaces to the ones in play this week. Smalley is also a veteran of this event, having played here three times already, posting finishes of T-4 (2022) and T-15 (2021). Given his finishing total is hovering just under that Top 40 position, I don’t see any reason not to be bullish and target him for another solid week.
Min Woo Lee Better Than 31.5 Finishing Position
Min Woo Lee has had an interesting season to date. He was up near the leaders after two rounds in the PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP but fell back a bit in the poor weather and ultimately finished T20. However, the Florida swing was positive for him as he also grabbed a T11 at PGA National. The Australian now comes to a longer course in Houston where his approaches won’t be as stressed by water guarding every hole and where his length off the tee should be a bigger advantage.
Overall, he’s finished T20 or better in four of his last six PGA starts and comes in ranked 20th in SG Putting and 7th in SG ATG stats over the last 24 rounds of play. He should set up well for this longer test of golf and is certainly a player who needs a big week given he currently sits just outside the top 50 in the OWGR. His finishing total is a little lower than I would have liked to have seen but ultimately he’s a player I’m bullish on for this week so I think taking the better than here is the play.
Taylor Pendrith Worse Than 34.5 Finishing Position
Pendrith is a player I have faded in this column numerous times over the past month. The Canadian did find his putting stroke at Sawgrass where he gained 6.2 strokes putting but still only managed a T38 finish, which is a bad sign as that spike in putting is not sustainable week-to-week. He’s still losing a lot of strokes around the green every week which is not good considering the other conditions we have in play at Memorial Park.
Pendrith has also played this venue three times in the past and finished outside the top 35 on all three occasions, so it’s not like this is a venue that has brought out the best in his game either. I expect we’ll see improved performances from him in late spring, but until the short game comes around I think actively fading him at these tougher courses is still the play.
J.J. Spaun Worse Than 29.5 Finishing Position
Spaun is coming off a huge week at the PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP but it wouldn’t shock me if there was some regression in store for him this week. The American ran extremely hot around the greens at Sawgrass but is traditionally a very up-and-down scrambler. Before the PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP, he had lost strokes around the green in three of his last four starts and he’s also struggled at Memorial Park Golf Course having never finished better than T36 here in three previous starts.
Spaun also isn’t the biggest hitter off the tee, so the longer course doesn’t really work in his favor and the fact he lost -3.7 strokes ATG at this venue last season is also concerning. It’s always scary fading someone coming off a big week like the one Spaun just had but it does seem warranted in this case.
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