We’re getting funky with a little NIT action on this Sweet Sixteen eve. I’ve got a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this NIT Quarterfinal game between Cleveland State and Illinois State.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
Cleveland State vs. Illinois state preview, prediction
Illinois State and Cleveland State clash in a thrilling NIT Tournament quarterfinal, with the Redbirds entering as the slight favorite, set at -2.5 on the spread. Illinois State’s offense has been rolling, with their inside-out game spearheaded by sophomore forward Chase Walker (14.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG), who’s been dominant in the CBI Tournament, registering 20+ points and at least eight rebounds in each game. Walker’s inside presence, paired with Johnny Kinziger’s (14.7 PPG, 39.4% 3PT) perimeter shooting, gives Illinois State a significant offensive edge. However, their biggest advantage might be Cleveland State’s vulnerability in the interior, especially when facing a physical post player like Walker. The Redbirds have also been more efficient offensively, ranked 87th in the nation in offensive efficiency (KenPom), while Cleveland State lags behind at 213th.
Cleveland State has had a solid tournament run so far, knocking off Florida Gulf Coast in the semifinals, led by Tevin Smith (13.8 PPG) and the hot hand of Tahj Staveskie (12.5 PPG, 81 3PT). However, while Cleveland State excels in perimeter shooting and ball pressure (top-10 nationally in turnover rate), their defensive woes—especially in the interior—are troubling against a team like Illinois State, which thrives on exploiting the paint. With Dylan Arnett (7.2 RPG) unable to match the physicality of Walker inside, Cleveland State’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ paint scoring. Additionally, the Vikings’ lack of depth and their reliance on perimeter shooting makes them susceptible to fatigue, especially in a back-to-back tournament setting. Illinois State, with their balanced inside-out attack, is well-equipped to exploit Cleveland State’s deficiencies.
Illinois State vs. Cleveland State pick, best bet
This game likely comes down to which team can dictate the tempo. Cleveland State’s ball pressure and transition offense are effective, but they’ll struggle to stop Illinois State’s bigs down low. While Cleveland State has been dangerous from three-point range, Illinois State’s defense is solid enough to contest their attempts and prevent an efficient perimeter game.
With Walker’s dominant presence inside and Kinziger’s shooting on the outside, the Redbirds should be able to cover the -2.5 spread.
Best bet: Illinois State -2.5 (+100)
Tail the Redbirds to cover the small spread and advance with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
