The Atlanta Hawks may be the league’s most predictable team, as they look bound for the Play-In Tournament for the fourth straight season. They’ve only advanced out of that tournament once, though; in 2022, they won the opening game to claim a bid in the postseason as the seventh seed, and last season’s defeat gifted them first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher.
This season, Atlanta is four and a half games behind the Detroit Pistons, who currently hold the sixth seed, and 10 and a half games better than the Toronto Raptors in 11th. They’ll clinch at least a postseason spot with a win tonight. Unsurprisingly, they hold -10000 odds to participate in the Play-In Tournament.
The Hawks are in this position largely because of both the highs and the lows of point guard Trae Young, who’s averaged 24.1 points and a league-leading 11.4 assists per game on mediocre efficiency and horrid defense. Tonight, Young will hope to lead his team to victory against the Houston Rockets, whose loss on Sunday snapped a nine-game winning streak.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is an eight-point underdog and the total is set for 235. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Ice Trae.
Best Trae Young Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Trae Young U24.5 Points (-110)
To be fair, Young has averaged 25.7 points per game since the All-Star break and scored 24 or fewer points just six times, and he’s topped that number in each of his past four games, a stretch in which he’s shot 55.4% from the field and 54.2% from beyond the arc. But with the exception of the Golden State Warriors, who Young torched to the tune of 25 points and 10 assists, none of those teams that the Hawks have played recently have very good defenses, and even the Warriors’ defense is driven more by forwards Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green than point guard Brandin Podziemski, who got the start with Stephen Curry sidelined.
That’s far from true with the Rockets, who, in their last 10 games, have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league, worse than only the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, and LA Clippers. Houston has several excellent individual perimeter defenders, including point guard Fred VanVleet, who ranks 18th in Basketball Reference’s defensive box plus-minus stat despite standing just six feet tall, and versatile wing Amen Thompson. Tari Eason, Jae’sean Tate, and Dillon Brooks are above average as well, and even in the paint, Alperen Şengün has become a reliable interior anchor. There are no obvious defensive weaknesses for Young to exploit.
Trae Young to Record a Double-Double (-120)
These are just about the lowest odds you’ll ever get for Young to record a double-double. While it’s true that Houston has allowed the fewest assists per game in the league in its last 10 games, Young has recorded 10 double-doubles since the All-Star break, and he leads the league with 42 point-assist double-doubles, seven more than the next-best player, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić. He’s recorded eight or more assists in all but 11 games, and the difference between eight and 10 assists is just the tiniest bit of shooting luck.
I’m not sure that defense matters to a passer as gifted as Young. Golden State has been relatively stingy at containing opposing playmakers since dealing for Butler in early February and still allowed Young to drop 10 dimes. He also recorded 12 assists against the Oklahoma City Thunder, 14 against the Miami Heat, and 13 against the Milwaukee Bucks, all of whom have allowed among the 10 fewest assists in their last 10 games. Young’s supporting cast has some injuries, but three of the four players he has assisted the most frequently this season — Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, and Risacher — are all healthy.
