March Madness returns on Thursday for the Sweet Sixteen with a four game slate. Let’s breakdown some best bets and predictions on the card.
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No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama
Newark, NJ – Thursday 7:09pm ET
BYU versus ‘Bama is set to be played like an NBA game, in the sense that the pace will be rapid, and 3-pointers will be going up like we’re watching a Celtics versus Warriors game. The Crimson Tide entered the NCAA Tournament ranking fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency and playing at the fastest tempo of any team. They average over 90 points per game, and are coming off a game in which they scored 80 points against the slowest possible matchup they could ask for — St. Mary’s ranks eighth in defensive efficiency and 359th in tempo.
Enter the Cougars, who rank 11th in offensive efficiency, and just put up a combined 180 points with Wisconsin in regulation. Keep in mind that BYU is 180th in tempo, while the Badgers are 152nd. Now picture what the pace should look like against the fastest team in the country, and we have a game that could easily be played into the 90’s.
Both teams have their issues defensively, as Alabama ranks 32nd in the country, and BYU 68th. Outside of pushing the pace for plenty of easy buckets, we should see insane volume from downtown in this game. These are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation, and neither is afraid to let it fly — ‘Bama has a 47% 3-point rate, and BYU’s is even higher at 50%.
The over can be “square,” it can be “public,” or really whatever you want to call it. It’s an obvious play that a ton of people will be on. But there’s just no chance the pace of play of this game doesn’t play to the over. Now, the teams could go cold and miss shots to put the game under, but the pace will absolutely play to the over between these two.
Playing as the underdog has not meant slowing the game down for the Cougars at all, going over the total in seven of the last eight when priced as the dog. ‘Bama has also been playing to the over, regardless of price, going over in eight of the last 12. Just since March 5, Alabama has gone over totals of 178.5 or higher three times already.
I played this one at the opening price of 171.5 in our DK Betting Group, but was anticipating an open of 175. This is a play for me out to 175.5 for 2.5 units, and anything up to 179.5 is a play for less.
March Madness Pick: BYU/Alabama OVER 171.5 (-110) 2.5-units
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
San Francisco, CA – Thursday 10:09pm ET
Not exactly your classic Cinderella here in the NIL era, but John Calipari has his 10th-seeded Razorbacks in the Sweet Sixteen. The path has been impressive, getting through Kansas and Saint John’s. While it was a down year for the Jayhawks, they still opened the preseason No. 1, and the Johnnies are just about as tough as they come, and boast the nation’s No. 1 ranked defensive efficiency.
Arkansas is finally playing up to its capabilities, and a lot of it has to do with getting healthy. Boogie Fland returned from an extended absence, and clearly gave his team a boost. Bodies have been in and out all season for the Hogs, but with the majority of their roster on the floor, they were able to put together two big wins last week in Providence. That said, they still did it without their leading scorer on the season, Adou Thiero, who averages 15.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals and almost a block a game in 26 appearances. Thiero is set to return to the lineup on Thursday for the first time in a little over a month. Just as Fland provided a spark for the Razorbacks last week, I expect the same from Thiero in some capacity on Thursday.
While it’s not a knock on Texas Tech, the Red Raiders have had the complete opposite path of Arkansas. They’ve gone through UNCW and Drake to get to this point, and are set for their toughest test yet, while Coach Cal and company have been playing up to this level throughout the tournament. Now, Texas Tech certainly is capable of playing against a big time opponent, but I’m expecting some struggles.
Drake ranks 46th in defensive efficiency, but clearly didn’t have the talent or athletes to keep up with the Red Raiders. Arkansas obviously has both, and ranks 20th in defensive efficiency. The key to the game here will be Arkansas getting stops. While the Kansas and St. John’s wins were very impressive, Texas Tech shoots the ball better than either of those teams. The Hogs will have to extend their defense to the perimeter a bit more, but I believe they’re capable.
Offensively is where Arkansas doesn’t grade out well, according to the metrics. The Razorbacks rank just 73rd in offensive efficiency this season, but I’m going to chalk that up to the injury issues. Now with their top two scorers on the floor together for the first time in months, I’m expecting Arkansas to be able to keep up offensively in this game, against a Tech defense that’s 37th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Hogs are now on an 8-1-1 ATS run in their last 10 games as an underdog, and I expect that to continue on Thursday night.
March Madness Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) 1.5-units
I’m also going to tack on a player prop in this one, as I think Fland is being overlooked. Boogie scored just six points in each of the first two NCAA Tournament games, returning for the first time since mid-January to play 24 and 20 minutes in those games. He shot terribly from the field against Kansas and St. John’s, going a combined 4-for-15, including 1-of-9 from downtown.
I’m expecting a couple of things to change in the Sweet Sixteen against Texas Tech. Fland averaged over 33 minutes per game during the regular season. With the week to get healthy and in better condition, now that he has a couple of games under his belt, I’m expecting his playing time to ramp up from the 22 minutes he’s averaging in the tournament. It’s also reasonable to assume that he’ll be able to knock the rust off his shot — the freshman is 38.4% from the field this season, including the NCAA Tournament (34.3% from beyond the arc).
The two poor shooting performances dropped Fland’s average down to 14.2 points per game, but that’s still way above where his prop is being offered. Combine more minutes and some better efficiency from Fland, and I project him clear his modest point prop of 7.5.
March Madness Player Prop Pick: Boogie Fland 8+ Points (-110) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
