While the Tokyo series was a fun way to get the regular season started, Opening Day gets the season started in earnest this Thursday with 28 of the 30 teams in action on Thursday. To celebrate the start of the season, DraftKings Sportsbook has a special market available with odds for each of the Opening Series. Let’s take a look at some of my best bets for the first weekend of what should be an exciting MLB regular season.
Since most of the series begin on Thursday, six of them are scheduled to be four-game sets. Those six series have a “tie” option included in the picks, so be sure to consider that when targeting those matchups. Here are the teams that I think will get off to a good start to the year:
Kansas City Royals over Cleveland Guardians (-160)
We’ll start with a favorite in the AL Central and work our way to a few longer shots toward the end of this post. The Royals won eight of the 13 head-to-head meetings between these two teams last season and went 2-1-1 in the three series, including taking three of four games twice.
For this series, they’ll just have to win two of three, and they’re at home where they had a 45-36 (.556) record last season. The Royals rotation is relatively healthy coming into the year, although we’re still waiting on an update on 1B Vinnie Pasquantino.
Cole Ragans will go against Tanner Bibee in the first game of this series in what should be a great matchup of aces. After an off day on Friday, the Royals will likely go with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in the second two games of the series, while the Guardians will turn to Gavin Williams and Luis Ortiz. While the first pitching matchup may be too close to call, the second and third matchups definitely favor Kansas City.
The Royals added Jonathan India to their lineup this offseason while the Guardians traded away slugger Josh Naylor in their most notable move. The Royals have a higher over/under in wins for the season on DraftKings Sportsbook and should be a better team overall this season.
Since they’re at home with the pitching stacked in their favor, look for Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals to get off to a fast start as one of my top best bets for opening week.
Cincinnati Reds over San Francisco Giants (-135)
The Reds are another home team with a three-game set this weekend at home. They’ll welcome in the Giants to start what they hope will be a new era under Terry Francona.
There is some concern about the weather since this series will be in Cincinnati in March, but I’m still good with betting on Cincinnati to get two wins in these three games. (The bet will void if only two games are played and split or one game is played since in that case neither team has won the series). Check out this post from DraftKings Help Center about how weather will impact series bets.
The Reds will start Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez. The Giants have not announced who they will start after Logan Webb in Game 1 but Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander and Jordan Hicks are among the candidates.
Last season, the Reds were 39-42 at home and the Giants were just 38-43 on the road. I think Francona will help the Reds contend for a Wild Card spot this season as their young hitters settle in and put up big years. It’s a close call, but I like the Reds at home out of the gate.
Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins (+110)
The Pirates are the only road team I’m highlighting in my best bets for opening week, but I’m getting them at plus money against the Marlins since they will have to win three of the four games in this series.
The first win should be pretty easy to secure since they’ll send Paul Skenes to the mound in Game 1 against Sandy Alcantara. Weird things can happen, for sure, but Skenes should get the season off to a fast start in a pitcher-friendly park against a strikeout-friendly matchup.
The teams haven’t announced their rotations after Opening Day, but the Pirates have Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter in their No. 2 through No. 4 spots while the Marlins have Max Meyer, Cal Quantrill and Connor Gillispie.
The Marlins have some nice young prospects in the mix and should be able to improve from last year, but the Pirates are much readier to contend this season. The over/under for Pirates’ wins this season is 77.5 while the Marlins is just 63.5. I’m backing the Buccos to get the road series win to get the season started.
Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (+225)
In another four-game set that will need three victories to win, I’m ready to roll with the Blue Jays in this AL East matchup against the Orioles to start the season. The Orioles won seven of the 13 games games between the teams last season, but the Blue Jays won four of the seven games in Toronto getting a series win and a series split. Taking the tie at +150 is another good option in this series, but I think Toronto can push to get the third win.
Part of the reason I’m willing to take the Blue Jays at such long odds is that they are much healthier, especially in the rotation. They’re starting Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt in the first four games of the season while the Orioles have announced Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton for the first two games with Dean Kremer and Tomoyuki Sogano expected to follow but not confirmed yet.
In their lineup, the Orioles will also be without Gunnar Henderson while the Blue Jays only notable absence is Daulton Varsho, which opens up a spot for exciting rookie Alan Roden to get regular playing time.
It’s a long shot pick for the Blue Jays, who had 74 wins last year, to take down the Orioles who had 91 wins, but given the relative health of the two teams, the home field advantage, and how I expect each team to come out of the gate, I’m taking a long-shot and taking Toronto as one of my best bets for opening week.
