We are down to our final 16 teams in the 2025 March Madness tournament, which means it’s time to focus our attention on what’s ahead. We have four games scheduled for Thursday’s slate and another four on Friday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Duke Blue Devils are +210 favorites to win it all. There is one double-digit seed remaining, John Calipari’s #10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks. Below is my favorite bet for each game in the Sweet 16.
#6 BYU vs. #2 Alabama
The Sweet 16 gets started on Thursday with the BYU Cougars facing the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite in this one, with the total set at 175.5. Both of these teams have impressed in this tournament so far, which is why I am taking the over in this one. BYU is averaging 85.5 points per game in the tournament, while Alabama is at 85. These are two high-powered offenses, which is why the over makes sense here. Alabama is one of the best teams in the country on their day, however, BYU has shown they can be competitive with anyone. Rather than picking a side, I think rooting for the points makes sense in this spot.
The Pick: Over 175.5 (-108)
#4 Maryland vs. #1 Florida
Maryland is fortunate to be playing in this game after needing a buzzer-beater to outlast #12 Colorado State in the round of 32. This is a massive step up in competition for the Terrapins, and I’m not quite sure they’ll be able to handle it. Maryland has gotten out to slow starts in each of their first two games, and it nearly cost them against CSU. They were down by seven at halftime and trailed for most of the game. However, here they are, and now they are tasked with the #1 seed. Florida barely survived against a good UCONN team in the round of 32, winning 77-75. The Gators feel like the better team and have been battle-tested against better competition to this point. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Florida is a 6.5-point favorite, and the total is 155.5. I think the Gators will be too good for Maryland in this one, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they won in fashion.
The Pick: Florida -6.5 (-112)
#4 Arizona vs. #1 Duke
As I mentioned earlier, the Blue Devils are favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the whole thing. Despite that, I do have hope for the Arizona Wildcats in this one. The Wildcats have come on strong late in the season and took Houston down to the wire in the Big 12 Championship. Despite that, this is Duke we’re talking about here. They are arguably the best team in the country, and they have the best player in the country. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the spread is 9.5 points and the total is 153.5. Although I do think the Blue Devils will advance in a close one, 9.5 points is just too much against a sneaky-good Wildcats team.
The Pick: Arizona +9.5 (-118)
#10 Arkansas vs. #3 Texas Tech
The final game on Thursday’s slate should be a dandy, as the highest remaining seed takes on the Texas Tech Raiders. Arkansas has impressed everyone by getting to this point, taking down two solid teams in Kansas and St. John’s. For Texas Tech, things have been a little easier as they beat UNCW by 10 in the first round, followed by a 13-point win against Drake in the second. The Razorbacks will provide a much tougher test for Texas Tech, who has been comfortable against inferior competition but not dominant. At this point in the tournament, seeding is out the window, and despite being the underdog, Arkansas might be the better team here. The Razorbacks are 5.5-point underdogs, with the total at 147.5. I like Arkansas to win outright in this one, and the +205 odds make it even sweeter.
The Pick: Arkansas Moneyline (+205)
#6 Ole Miss vs. #2 Michigan State
Ole Miss has been one of the most impressive teams in this year’s tournament, taking down North Carolina and Iowa State. They got both of those wins with style points, beating UNC by 7 and Iowa State by 13. For Michigan State, the road hasn’t been as smooth despite winning their first game by 25 and their second by eight; they struggled mightily against New Mexico until the final few minutes. The Lobos had the lead at halftime and made the Spartans sweat down the stretch. Ole Miss passes the eye test for me in this one, and I think we will see the second #2 seed go down. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Michigan State is a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 144.5.
The Pick: Ole Miss Moneyline (+136)
#3 Kentucky vs. #2 Tennessee
Next up, we have an SEC matchup, with Kentucky taking on Tennessee. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Volunteers are 4.5-point favorites while the total is 145.5. I’m going with yet another upset win in this one, as Kentucky has impressed me mightily this tournament. They had a tough matchup against #6 Illinois in the round of 32, a matchup which they were favored to lose, and came out nine-point winners. Tennessee has taken care of business so far, beating UCLA by nine in the round of 32. These teams met twice in the regular season, with the Wildcats coming out victorious on both occasions. I believe they will get it done for the third time this season, and advance to the Elite 8.
The Pick: Kentucky Moneyline (+164)
#5 Michigan vs. #1 Auburn
The Michigan Wolverines are 8.5-point underdogs against Auburn, with the total at 152.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Michigan is on an incredible run, winning the Big 10 tournament before knocking off UC San Diego and Texas A&M in March Madness. The only problem is, the Auburn Tigers are on a great run of their own. Despite losing to Tennessee in the SEC tournament, the Tigers earned themselves the #1 overall seed and are a force to be reckoned with. They have been the best team in college basketball all season, and I don’t see a way in which Michigan wins this game. Auburn spent eight weeks this season ranked as the best team in the country for a reason, and I think they show everyone why in this one. Give me the Tigers to cover the spread.
The Pick: Auburn -8.5 (-118)
#4 Purdue vs. #1 Houston
Our final game of the Sweet 16 slate features two teams with a lot of recent tournament experience. In this one, the Cougars are 8.5-point favorites with the total set at 132.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly Vegas thinks this is going to be a low-scoring slugfest, and it’s hard not to agree with them. Both teams want to slow the game down and play lockdown defense. However, one of these teams has been better at that style of play this season, and that’s Houston. They are one of the best teams in the country and are on a 15-game unbeaten run. Their last loss was on February 1st, a one-point defeat to Texas Tech. I like Houston to cover the spread in this one, and advance to the Elite 8 with ease.
