There are only three more nights until Opening Day. It’s like Christmas Eve Eve Eve, if you will.
It truly feels like Spring Training started years ago at this point, but the first exhibition game of the season technically took place on February 20 between the Cubs and the Dodgers. So much has changed since then between on-field performance and injury. How has that impacted where players are being taken in drafts? I’m here to fill you in.
Let’s take a look at three notable fantasy baseball assets that have seen their draft stock fall across the last five weeks. Is there merit to the public suddenly turning on these players? Allow me to break it all down.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Fallers
1B Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
NFBC ADP on February 20: 26.1
NFBC ADP from March 21 to March 24: 33.0
Both Freeman and Mookie Betts have seen their draft stock fall after ailments kept them from suiting up in the Tokyo Series. However, between the two, it seems more justified to have legitimate concerns about Freeman heading into 2025. The last time he was on the field in a game that mattered, Freeman was playing at a high enough level to win World Series MVP. Yet, when looking at 2024 as a whole, there are some clear red flags with the man who will turn 36-years-old this September.
Part of Freeman’s value has been his durability. Dating back to the beginning of 2018, only Marcus Semien has taken more plate appearances than Freeman’s 4,432, but that locked-in volume suddenly doesn’t feel as secure after an injury-plagued playoff run. You could say the same about Freeman’s stolen base potential, especially on the heels of him posting a 15th percentile average sprint speed (25.8) last season. 2024 also saw Freeman register a batting average below .300 for the first time since 2019. His .367 expected wOBA was the lowest of his career. Is Freeman a poor fantasy asset? Goodness no. There’s a case to be made that he remains a borderline elite hitter. Still, he’s trending in the wrong direction and those trends don’t often reserve at his advanced age. It’s not a total shock to see people souring on the likely Hall of Fame first baseman.
SP George Kirby, Mariners
NFBC ADP on February 20: 73.4
NFBC ADP from March 21 to March 24: 138.6
Here’s the latest on Kirby: He began a throwing program on March 21 after dealing with some right shoulder inflammation a couple weeks back. He has no timetable to make his 2025 debut and, even if the ramp-up process goes well, the most optimistic projection wouldn’t have the RHP healthy and pitching for the Mariners until May.
The issue here, aside from the obvious, is that so much of Kirby’s value heading into this season was based on his floor. Kirby is basically the exact opposite of someone like Blake Snell. While Kirby’s tossed over 190 innings each of the last two seasons, he’s done so while striking out fewer than a batter per frame. His 3.44 ERA and 3.60 xFIP are very good, but again, they paint the picture of an asset who lacks the upside of a Top 10 starter. If Kirby is only going to pitch in 20 games in 2025, it’s simply difficult to find the appeal, especially with some injury risk baked in.
OF Luis Robert, White Sox
NFBC ADP on February 20: 82.6
NFBC ADP from March 21 to March 24: 89.8
I’m inclined to believe that some of this is just fatigue. We’ve all been on quite the rollercoaster ride with Robert. He’s gone from being a highly-anticipated top prospect to an injury-prone question mark to a legitimate All-Star to a massive bust all in the tidy span of a half-decade. For the purposes of this conversation, it’s important to remember that the disappointing aspect of the Robert spectrum is where we last left off with the 27-year-old. Robert was horrendous in 2024, hitting .224 with an 84 wRC+ in his 100 games. He finished the campaign with a second percentile strikeout rate (33.2%), a sixth percentile expected wOBA (.277) and a sixth percentile expected batting average (.210).
Still, despite the struggles and injury woes, Robert wound up with 14 long balls and 23 stolen bases last season. You don’t have to be a crazy optimist to see the path back to Robert’s production from 2023, only with more steals thanks to MLB’s new rules on the base paths. You could also make the case that the talented outfielder was a little disengaged in 2024, plying his trade for one of the worst team’s in the history of baseball. Robert has put together a solid game log in Spring Training, too. In 54 plate appearances, he’s slashing .277/.370/.489 with three home runs. There’s clearly some risk in this profile, but to me, there’s just as much risk with assets like Brenton Doyle and Cody Bellinger, who are going off the draft board 15-20 pick higher than Robert. In this tier of OF, I’m willing to wait on Robert and his ceiling.
