Welcome to some more fertile ground for a bracket-destroyer. The 12-seed Colorado State Rams face the four-seed Maryland Terrapins in a Round of 32 showdown. While Maryland’s star power has been undeniable, the Rams come in red-hot after a first-round upset, armed with a defense that thrives on disrupting rhythm and forcing turnovers. This one is set up to be more of a brawl than some of the other Round of 32 games. I’ve got a preview, prediction, and breakdown for their second-round March Madness game between Maryland and Colorado State.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout the tournament.
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Maryland vs. Colorado State preview, prediction
Colorado State comes into this matchup riding high after a dominant 81-67 upset of Memphis in the Round of 64. In that game, they showcased their ability to control the glass, posting a +8.7 rebound margin (ranked No. 20 nationally) and grabbing 38.3% of offensive rebounds. This relentless pursuit of the boards gave them multiple extra opportunities, which they converted into high-percentage looks. They also capitalized on Memphis’s turnovers, forcing 13.9 turnovers per game and finishing with a +3.8 turnover margin (ranked No. 15 nationally). Their defensive intensity and offensive efficiency were on full display, and this type of performance is precisely what gives them a chance to cover the +6.5 spread here.
On the offensive side, Colorado State’s three-point shooting was scorching in the Memphis game. They converted 43.0% from deep, continuing their No. 7 ranking in the country for effective field goal percentage offense. Nique Clifford (19.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 4.4 APG) was the engine behind their attack, racking up 21 points and 10 rebounds. His all-around scoring ability was crucial in keeping Memphis on their heels and has given Colorado State one of the most dynamic offensive players in the field.
In the midst of their tournament run, the Terrapins’ ability to execute on both ends has been their calling card. Maryland ranks in the top-20 nationally in both offensive (81.7 PPG) and defensive (67.0 PPG) efficiency, showing their prowess in controlling the tempo and making opposing offenses uncomfortable. The dynamic duo of Derik Queen and Julian Reese provides a massive presence in the paint, both offensively and defensively. Along with their sharp-shooting backcourt trio of Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and Selton Miguel, the Terps have a versatile attack capable of hurting teams in a variety of ways. They are a top-20 team in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, helping them win the battle inside and get extra opportunities to put points on the board.
However, the Terps’ lack of depth remains a glaring concern, with only five players seeing meaningful minutes. Maryland ranks No. 303 in bench minutes and their bench players don’t provide much scoring punch. Despite Maryland’s clear strengths, avoiding foul trouble is critical. They’ve shown vulnerability in the depth department, particularly in their losses this season, which were largely due to scoring droughts and turnovers.
Against Grand Canyon in the Round of 64, their starting five saw heavy minutes—Derik Queen, Julian Reese, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie each logged over 30 minutes, with Queen and Reese pushing beyond 35 minutes. This reliance on the starters is evident when examining Maryland’s turnover margin; when bench players were on the floor, Maryland committed three turnovers in just 12 minutes of play (13.9% turnover rate) compared to the more disciplined starters who maintained just two turnovers per 35 minutes (8.2% turnover rate). This stark contrast shows that, while the Terrapins’ starters are solid, they lack depth and are vulnerable when their main contributors are on the bench.
Colorado State vs. Maryland pick, best bet
In terms of advanced metrics, CSU has been +3.8 in turnover margin all season, which could play a key role in dictating tempo and preventing Maryland from getting too comfortable on offense. And the Terps do indeed need to get comfortable on offense in order for the Crab Five to operate all-systems-go.
Both teams bring strengths to the table, but the issue for Maryland lies in their lack of depth and their inconsistency in shooting from beyond the arc. Colorado State has the rebounding edge, and if they can dictate the pace, they’ll limit Maryland’s opportunities to settle in. As we’ve seen with their upset of Memphis, the Rams are capable of grinding out wins through aggressive defense, rebounding, and shooting the ball efficiently from deep.
Given Colorado State’s rebounding prowess, defensive discipline, and their ability to disrupt Maryland’s rhythm, I see the Rams keeping this game competitive throughout. The first-round win was no fluke, and with Clifford’s talent and CSU’s ability to control tempo, the Rams are primed to cover the spread.
Best bet: Colorado State +7.5 (-105)
Tail the Rams to keep their 12-seed Cinderella hopes alive against the Crab Five with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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