March Madness continues on Saturday, with eight games between 16 teams set to tip off. In the Midwest region, #2 Tennessee will take on #7 UCLA in the Round of 32. The Volunteers handled Wofford with ease on Wednesday, winning by a score of 77-62. Later that night, the Bruins dominated Utah State 72-47, earning head coach Mick Cronin his 16th career NCAA Tournament victory.
Tennessee enters this contest as 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 132.5 points. Below is my college basketball pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s March Madness showdown.
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#2 Tennessee vs. #7 UCLA (9:45 PM EST)
If you hate points, this is the matchup for you! Tennessee has blossomed into a defensive juggernaut under head coach Rick Barnes. This season, the Volunteers have allowed the 11th-fewest points per game in the nation (63.0). Per KenPom, the team ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.5). However, this roster also has several high-level guards, including SEC assist leader Zakai Zeigler and sharpshooter Chaz Lanier.
It’s a similar story for UCLA, one of the grittiest basketball teams in the country. The Bruins rank 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 65.2 points per game. Unlike the Vols, Cronin’s squad relies heavily on its front court. The big man duo of Tyler Bilodeau (13.5 PPG) and Eric Dailey (11.7 PPG) account for 38.5% of the team’s points.
Tennessee and UCLA are battle-tested, having survived SEC and Big 10 conference play. Both schools also play at a glacial pace, ranking 346th and 313th respectively in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. On paper, that seems like the perfect recipe for a low-scoring affair. However, these two programs have reached 133 total points in more than half of their outings this season. At such a low number (with the potential to drop even further before tip off), an unexpected over is a possibility. The Vols and Bruins should get enough production on offense tonight.
College Basketball Pick: Over 132.5 points (1 Unit)
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