The former welterweight champion No. 1 Leon “Rocky” Edwards returns home to face No. 5 Sean Brady in the main event of today’s UFC Fight Night. The Main Card begins at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The co-main event features a light heavyweight bout between former champion No. 3 Jan Blachowicz vs. No. 6 Carlos Ulberg.
Here are my two best bets for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady.
Leon Edwards Moneyline (+124)
Although Edwards lost his previous fight to Belal Muhammad, it was his first defeat since 2015. This is Edwards’ first fight night appearance since March 2021. Edwards is the underdog in this contest at +124 on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Brady being a -124 favorite.
Surprisingly, Edwards is the underdog since he is the former champion fighting in his home country. It was apparent in the face-off on Friday that Edwards has a massive height advantage. Edwards is taller by four inches (6’2″ vs. 5’10”). Even though Edwards struggled against Belal Muhammad, another down performance is unlikely. Edwards is 11-1 with a no contest in his previous 13 fights.
If Edwards can better defend takedowns than he did against Muhammad, he will have a great chance to win this bout. Edwards only absorbs 2.37 significant strikes per minute, 0.41 less than Brady.
Carlos Ulberg to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+165)
Ulberg has successfully run in the UFC, winning seven straight fights. He is coming off his first decision victory in the UFC. Ulberg has four knockouts in his last six fights.
In this bout, Ulberg is the favorite, but he is a big favorite at -340. The better value play is getting Ulberg to win this contest by knockout. Eight of Ulberg’s 12 victories in his MMA career have come by knockout, although he is facing a tough competitor in Jan Blachowicz. Ulberg will need to use his two-inch height advantage in order to control the pace of the fight. If Ulberg does so, he will put himself in a great position to get the biggest victory of his career.
