NASCAR hits another intermediate track but Homestead-Miami isn’t the normal 1.5-mile oval. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami.
For NASCAR Picks from the lower series, follow @Race4thePrize on Twitter.
Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Race Winner — Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead
Kyle Larson +360
Time to get the broom out? Yung Money won the first leg of his triple-duty weekend at Homestead-Miami, a NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series win at a special track. In the middle of Stage 3, Larson spun out while battling for position in the top five. He restarted in the back half of the field with 39 laps to go. That’s when the magic happened. Larson weaved through traffic, and once in the top five, he glued his truck to the wall. He was seconds faster than the rest of the field on each lap. Corey Heim experienced a late-race mechanical issue and Larson then cruised to victory.
Larson got lucky, but his skill put him in position to benefit from Heim’s misfortune. Driver luck isn’t actionable. Driver skill is. And no one rips the wall at Homestead-Miami like Kyle Larson. No one has, and no one ever will. With one win in the bag, his confidence is elevated. It takes confidence and courage to hug the wall. He’s usually an inch away from the barrier. We could be talking centimeters on Sunday.
Race Winner — Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead
Ryan Preece +3,500
Long shots are only a thing at superspeedways. That’s the old way. Times have changed. This isn’t your father’s NASCAR Cup Series. The Gen-7 stock car has changed the game. It’s an actual stock car — not stock as in driven off the dealer’s lot, but in the sense that the cars are the same. There is parity. Speed is consistent from first to thirtieth. The Cup Series has changed, but minds have not. Odds will shrink by season’s end. This is the time to attack.
There’s practice, and there’s racing. Allen Iverson’s disdain for practice is often mocked, but he was right. Practice is important, but it’s just practice. The game is different. The race is different in NASCAR. Drivers can hot-lap to their heart’s desire in practice. Blazing-fast practice times at Homestead don’t mean much. What matters is how the driver navigates traffic in the race — who can find alternate routes around the track and make passes. This isn’t on display in practice, it’s only visible in a race. Track history is a key metric for this unique intermediate track.
Preece knows how to race at Homestead. He knows how to get to the front. He has driven to the front in weak equipment. This is the best ride of his Cup Series career. RFK Racing brought him in for a reason. Preece finished third at Las Vegas. He finished 10th and 13th in the last two Homestead races.
There’s a theme — talent and time. Talented drivers often do not live up to expectations. Racing isn’t fair. The NASCAR Cup Series has always been inequitable. That’s racing — more money, more wins. The zeitgeist has shifted. Talented drivers from small teams are no longer at an insurmountable disadvantage. Kaulig Racing isn’t Hendrick or JGR, but that doesn’t matter in this series. The current stock car package and equalized parts have created a level playing field.
The Dinger has talent. His timing isn’t great. It’s not his fault. His open-wheel career was hampered by the CART-IRL split. That led to his stock car transition and a decade of disappointment. The Dinger didn’t forget how to drive. He had inferior equipment in an era when the field was divided. There were haves and have-nots, and the have-nots didn’t stand a chance. The current era allows Allmendinger’s talent to shine.
Allmendinger may not produce every week. Most drivers won’t in this equitable series. It’s week by week. It’s track by track. Homestead is an Allmendinger track. In the parity era of the NASCAR Gen-7 car, Allmendinger has finished eighth, fifth, and third at Homestead.
