A coaching matchup in the Round of 32 that feels about as blue-bood as we might have gotten all tournament (no offense to Tom Izzo)? You know what they say: March don’t disappoint. And neither should this one between a Coach Cal-led Arkansas Razorbacks team who did just enough to squeeze by Kansas, and a St. John’s Red Storm team that looks deadly in coach Rick Pitino’s second year. That second-year Pitino leap, huh? The gift that keeps on giving, as it were. I digress. Let’s get to my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness second round college basketball game between St. John’s and Arkansas.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout the tournament.
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St. John’s vs. Arkansas preview, prediction
St. John’s is built to suffocate opponents. The Red Storm don’t just play defense—they enforce it. Ranked fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, they dominate with relentless full-court press on-ball defense. RJ Luis Jr. and Kadary Richmond are both lockdown defenders, capable of disrupting opposing backcourts and forcing mistakes. Over the course of the season, St. John’s forced turnovers on 23.6% of opponent possessions (fourth nationally). They also ranked in the top 10 in defensive rebounding percentage (75.3%). Their pressure has worn teams thin, and with Zuby Ejiofor’s emergence, their defense has only gotten better.
They also excel at creating chaos in transition, where they capitalize on live-ball turnovers and score efficiently. In the Round of 64, St. John’s showcased their defensive dominance, limiting Omaha to just 40.1% shooting and forcing 16 turnovers. The Red Storm generated 17 points off turnovers and outrebounded Omaha 38-26, dominating both ends of the floor. If St. John’s can sustain their energy, they’ll overwhelm Arkansas with their size and athleticism.
Arkansas, on the other hand, is an athletic powerhouse, riding its size and length to a top-20 defensive ranking. The Razorbacks’ defense, anchored by 7-foot-2 Zvonimir Ivisic, is built around shot-blocking and forcing difficult looks, ranking No. 17 in block percentage (12.1%) and No. 19 in overall defense. Despite losing Boogie Fland in January, the Razorbacks have continued to impress defensively, ranking No. 19 in defensive turnover rate (21.3%) and making up for offensive inefficiencies with aggressive defense. They advanced past Kansas in the Round of 64, stifling the Jayhawks’ offensive rhythm and holding them to just 41.3% shooting.
Offensively, though, Arkansas struggles to put up consistent points. They ranked just No. 80 in offensive efficiency this season and rely heavily on D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis for scoring. With Arkansas ranking No. 312 in three-point shooting (28.4%) and No. 256 in free-throw percentage (67.8%), the Razorbacks face a steep challenge against St. John’s defensive juggernaut.
Arkansas vs. St. John’s pick, best bet
Flat-out, St. John’s is a bad matchup for Arkansas. The Razorbacks’ inability to shoot consistently from beyond the arc and from the line plays right into the hands of the Red Storm, who thrive on creating chaos and exploiting offensive weaknesses. Arkansas’ reliance on athleticism alone won’t be enough to break through St. John’s suffocating defense, especially with the Razorbacks’ scoring limitations.
St. John’s has shown the ability to dictate pace and wear teams down physically—something Arkansas, despite its length, is ill-equipped to handle. With their depth, relentless pressure, and superior guard play, the Red Storm should be able to control this game. St. John’s -6.5 is the play.
Best bet: St. John’s -6.5 (-115)
Tail the Red Storm to slow-smoke the Woo Piggies with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Also …
Arkansas vs. St. John’s *slight* lean
A brief(ish) note on the total of 144.5: The total sits at 144.5, and given the defensive styles of both teams, there are a couple of things to consider. St. John’s will likely keep Arkansas’ offense in check, slowing the tempo and forcing turnovers. However, the Red Storm’s ability to get out in transition and their offensive rebounding (No. 12 in the nation at 36.2%) could generate extra possessions that push the total. On the other hand, Arkansas’ low shooting efficiency—especially from three-point range—could limit the scoring in the half-court, with the Razorbacks’ struggles from the line potentially stalling offensive opportunities.
This game feels like one where St. John’s defensive pressure keeps the game from becoming a high-scoring affair, but their depth and transition game could still drive it above the total. If Arkansas can’t knock down shots consistently, expect a slightly lower-scoring affair that just stays under 144.5, but it’s close. A lean toward the under is certainly advisable, but all will depend on how well the Red Storm can control the pace.
Total lean: St. John’s vs. Arkansas total points u144.5 (-115)
Tail it with me here!
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