As the Boston Celtics chase their second consecutive NBA title, which would put them two ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers for the most in NBA history, their charge is once again being led by Jayson Tatum. His stats this season — 27.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists on slightly above-average efficiency — are impressive, but not anomalous.
The Anomaly — as he’s become known this season — has led his Celtics team to the second-best record in the Eastern Conference despite relative down seasons from Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday. Boston should easily win its fourth straight game tonight as it travels to face the horrendous Utah Jazz, who are surely already printing Cooper Flagg jerseys.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Celtics (-1050 Moneyline) are heavy favorites and the total is set for 227. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Tatum.
Best Jayson Tatum Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jayson Tatum 10+ First-Quarter Points (+100)
For Utah, the injury list — as it has been all season — is long and features two of the team’s best players. John Collins suffered an ankle sprain in the team’s 122-115 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on March 12, and Lauri Markkanen is sitting for personal reasons.
I don’t want to downplay anything personal that the Finnish star might be going through, but the Jazz have already been fined $100,000 for violating the league’s anti-tanking policy, and sitting Markkanen looks suspiciously like a move to ensure that they finish with one of the league’s three worst records. Will Hardy’s rotations — for instance, playing Markkanen less than 10 minutes in the second half regularly — have been strange. While Markkanen remains out, Kyle Filipowski will likely draw the start at power forward.
I’m not going to take Tatum’s full-game points prop out of fear that he’ll score, say, 28 points in the first three quarters before sitting for the entire fourth quarter because Boston’s lead is so significant, but expecting him to score 10 points in the opening frame against a Utah defense that has been the league’s second-worst this season is hardly a foolhardy proposition. This season, Tatum has posted the league’s 10th-highest first-quarter usage rate among players who have appeared in 50 or more games, and he’s averaging 7.8 points per game in the frame. Both of those numbers should go up in the absence of Brown, who’s out with a back injury.
Jayson Tatum O3.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)
In a way, Utah’s defensive philosophy is the perfect antithesis to the Celtics’ offensive outlook, since Boston shoots by far the most threes in the league and the Jazz allow by far the most. Since the All-Star break, opponents have launched 44.1 triples per game against Utah, which, if they were one team, would be second in the league behind only the Celtics’ audacious figure. So if the Jazz effectively turn all of their opponents into Boston, imagine what the Celtics will look like against them…
Utah gives up by far the most above-the-break threes in the league, and launching from above the break is Tatum’s bread and butter. He attempts 9.5 such shots per game, the third-most in the league, hitting them at a decent 34.7% clip. He’s also made four or more triples in four of his last five games and in each of the 10 games he’s played this season without Brown. The other Jazz starting forward, rookie Cody Williams, has allowed opponents to shoot 6.5 percentage points better from beyond the arc when he’s the nearest defender, and Filipowski has been merely average.
