UPDATE: Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane is questionable for tonight’s contest with a back injury.
The Western Conference playoff picture is going to come down to the wire. The Oklahoma City Thunder have already clinched the first seed overall in the conference, but beyond that, everything is in doubt. Two games separate the second-seeded Houston Rockets and the fifth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies, and the Golden State Warriors have a 1.5-game edge on both the LA Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves for the sixth seed, but LA has won four straight games.
The Clippers will seek to make that five tonight against Memphis at Intuit Dome, where they’re 24-7 with a plus-9.0 net rating since November 1. The NBA’s newest arena has treated its tenants rather well, even if it hasn’t regularly sold out. But fans in attendance might at least be treated to an LA victory against a Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant for the fourth straight game.
Given the high flyer’s injury and the Clippers’ stellar home form, it makes sense that LA is a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-270 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 231.5. Meanwhile, Memphis is +220 on the Moneyline.
Ivica Zubac 15+ Rebounds (+160)
I’ve written a lot about Zubac, who has taken the leap from high-quality role player to star this season and has seemingly improved every game. In the Clippers’ most recent game, a 132-119 win against the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday, Zubac had his third 20-point, 20-rebound game of the season, and he’s snagged 10 or more rebounds in all but 14 contests this season. Among all qualified players, he ranks fifth in total rebounding percentage and second in defensive win shares, and his offense is starting to come around too; since the All-Star break, he’s averaged 20.5 points per game, including 17.7 in the paint, the second-most in the league across that span. If LA notches a first-round upset, Zubac will be a huge reason why.
Morant’s absence actually hasn’t had too big of an impact on the Grizzlies’ defense, given that he’s been in and out of the lineup all season. But in the three games since he’s gone down with his latest shoulder flare-up, Memphis has given up the eighth-most rebounds per game. For a six-foot-10 player who has played the majority of his minutes at center, Grizzlies star Jaren Jackson Jr. is a terrible rebounder, ranking just above league-average in total rebounding percentage. In the 24 or so minutes that seven-foot-four rookie Zach Edey doesn’t play, Memphis loses its advantage on the boards, especially to a player as dominant as Zubac.
Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points (+130)
Perhaps the scariest thing about the Clippers’ return to form entering the playoffs is that Leonard shows flashes of prime Leonard, and prime Leonard once out-dueled Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Stephen Curry in successive playoff series to bring a title to the Toronto Raptors. Since the All-Star break, Fun Guy is averaging 24.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 48.8% from the field and 42.0% from beyond the arc, and he’s scored 25 or more points in three of his last four games. The only exception was a 23-point performance in just 26 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets in a game LA eventually won by 35.
Plus, while the Grizzlies have been a good defense all season — they rank a solid 11th in defensive rating — they’ve struggled mightily against opposing wings. Rookie Jaylen Wells will probably spend much of his game defending Leonard while Jackson drops back to mark Zubac in the paint, and while Wells has had his moments and deservedly will make All-Rookie First Team, he still ranks just 151st among 184 qualified players in defensive box plus-minus this season and opponents have shot just 0.5 percentage points worse than usual when he’s the nearest defender. Memphis has also given up a lot of midrange shots, and Leonard is one of the most accurate midrange shooters of all time.
Desmond Bane 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+100)
The Clippers are elite at almost every aspect of defense; since Leonard’s debut on January 4, they’ve allowed the third-fewest points and fourth-fewest rebounds per game. So LA’s rare weakness — its susceptibility to the three-ball — stands out; with Leonard, the Clippers rank just 17th in three-pointers allowed and 20th in opponent three-point percentage. Some of that is luck, but part of it is the fact that LA ranks just 16th in contested threes per game across that span. The Clippers also give up the 11th-most above-the-break threes per game, and Bane is the rare shooter who is more accurate from there than in the corners, draining 40.4% of his above-the-break triples and just 33.8% in the corners.
Plus, Bane has definitely benefited the most from Morant’s absence. In the four games that he has played without Morant since the All-Star break, he’s averaged 30.3 points per game while making 4.0 three-pointers per game on 59.3% accuracy, although all of those figures are buoyed by a 44-point, seven-for-seven from deep masterpiece against the Sacramento Kings on Monday. Over the last three games, Bane has posted a 26.9% usage rate, the 22th-highest among the 61 players who have played at least 90 total minutes across that span and only slightly lower than Jackson’s 28.8%. Tonight, Bane should get plenty of possessions against James Harden and Norman Powell — two average-to-below-average defenders — while Jackson will be stifled by Leonard.
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