While the March Madness has taken over the basketball world, the NBA grind continues. Teams are entering the season’s final stretch with playoff seeding and lottery odds on the line at each end of the standings.
After a mild night last night in the association, 10 games will be on the slate tonight. Starting at 7 p.m. ET, the Washington Wizards will host the Orlando Magic in the lone game during this period. Four games will tip off at 8 p.m. ET. The Houston Rockets will play the Miami Heat, the New Orleans Pelicans will face the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Charlotte Hornets, and the Philadelphia 76ers will compete against the San Antonio Spurs.
Then, the Detroit Pistons will take on the Dallas Mavericks in the lone game at 8:30 p.m. ET before the Boston Celtics will take on the Utah Jazz at 9:30 p.m. ET. A pair of games begin at 10 p.m. ET: the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. the Phoenix Suns and the Denver Nuggets vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. Finally, the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies will close down the day’s games and are set to tip off at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Keep a close eye on the injury reports as the grind of the season has taken a toll around the league. With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Friday’s slate.
Tyler Herro Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-160)
Things have gotten ugly down in South Beach. The Heat have dropped to 29-40 on the season, slipping to 10th place in the Eastern Conference, and enter this game on a nine-game losing skid. Jimmy Butler is not walking back in that locker room anytime soon, so it is up to the remaining players to begin digging themselves out of this.
A great deal of this responsibility falls on Tyler Herro’s shoulders. The Kentucky product is amid an impressive season averaging a career-high 23.6 points, 5.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game. Herro is also attempting a career-high 9.6 three-pointers per game, connecting at a 36.6% rate. This comes out to an average of 3.4 made three-pointers per game. He has connected on over 2.5 made three-pointers in 45 of the 66 games he has played. He also has eclipsed this total in eight of his last 10 games.
Miami will take on the Houston Rockets tonight who play a strong brand of defense. They rank fifth in opponents’ points per game allowed and the ninth-worst opposing three-point percentage. Herro shot 3-for-7 from beyond the arc in the first matchup against the Rockets this year. The defense will be tough, but Herro continues to deliver as the clear focal point of the offense. Look for him to be active from beyond the three-point arc again tonight and connect with over 2.5 made three-pointers for the 46th time this season.
Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 Points (-105)
Lost in the great team success that Oklahoma City has had this year, it has been a fairly frustrating season for Chet Holmgren. The Gonzaga product has been limited to just 23 games due to injuries. After suiting up for all 82 games last year, Holmgren missed nearly three months with a hip injury and has not played more than three consecutive games since returning. Statistically, Holmgren has taken a bit of a step back this year. He is averaging 15.2 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game.
While this reduction in production has had much more to do with the growth in players around him than Holmgren specifically, this is beginning to change. The 7-footer has played in attack mode lately and has recorded over 16.5 points in two of the past three games as well as five of his past 10.
Oklahoma City has granted Holmgren more offensive freedom and this should be expected to continue with Jalen Williams remaining sidelined. The Thunder will take on the Hornets tonight who hold the third-worst record in the NBA at 18-51. This is the second half of a back-to-back for this youthful roster with Mark Williams, and the injury concerns he possesses, coming off a 19-point and 14-rebound performance last night. Don’t be shocked if Williams is limited or ruled out in this second half of the back-to-back clearing a pathway to a strong performance by Holmgren. Even at full strength, the Thunder have too much for this Hornets team. Expect Holmgren to continue playing in attack mode and record over 16.5 points for the 11th time this season as he picks up Williams’ missing offensive production.
Jeremy Sochan Over 8.5 Rebounds (+124)
The San Antonio Spurs looked primed to make a strong play-in or playoff push shortly after the trade deadline. Things have changed since this point with both Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox being shut down for the season with injuries. They will face off with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight who also find themselves in the lottery mix. Both teams are focused on allowing their young players to continue developing and play through their mistakes.
Jeremy Sochan is a huge part of this effort for the Spurs in his third NBA season. Sochan is averaging 11.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 25.4 minutes per game. In the Spurs’ previous game, Sochan logged his first start since Jan. 6. He played 37:57 of game time and produced 10 points and six rebounds against the Knicks. The Spurs will now shift their attention to the 76ers, who are far more vulnerable on the boards.
Philadelphia ranks 30th in total team rebounds and 25th in opponents’ rebounds allowed. In addition to Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond and Adem Bona have already been ruled out for this game due to injuries. Guerschon Yabusele is expected to serve as the primary big man. The Frenchman has been a huge bright spot on the season overall but has been a bit overexposed in his role of late. Sochan is a high-level rebounder who will have an expanded opportunity to perform tonight. He has tallied over 8.5 rebounds in 13 games this season and has a clear path to more minutes than he typically sees. Look for him to capitalize on Philadelphia’s weakness and attack the glass with a high level of effort tonight.
Evan Mobley Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
Tipping off in the late window of games, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Phoenix Suns. The Cavaliers continue to hold a comfortable lead for the top seed in the East while the Suns are tied for the final play-in seed in the West. Evan Mobley has been a driving force behind the leap in production the Cavaliers have taken. In his fourth NBA season, Mobley is averaging 18.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.
Cleveland’s tactic of playing both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley has been problematic for opponents this season. But it should be noted when the Cavaliers are forced to play a lone center due to matchup it is typically Allen that gets the short end of the stick. Don’t be surprised if tonight is a matchup where the Cavaliers are forced to lean on this game plan as they face the isolation-centric Suns. Phoenix has lacked big-man production all season and ranks 25th in total team rebounds and 18th in opponent rebounds allowed on the season. Even trading for Nick Richards or giving an expanded opportunity to players like Bol Bol has not solved this weakness.
Look for Mobley to impose himself on the interior and be active on the glass tonight. The USC product has recorded over 9.5 rebounds in 32 of the 61 games he has played. This includes nine of his past 15 games played. Expect the interior production of the Cavaliers to be problematic for the Suns in this matchup and for Mobley to lead the charge on the boards. Count on him recording over 9.5 rebounds for the 33rd time against an inferior opponent.
