Michigan State comes into this matchup as a heavy favorite, thanks to their physicality and defensive dominance—and, you know, the whole Tom Izzo of it all. Bryant may be a dangerous 15-seed with their athleticism and perimeter shooting, but the Bulldogs will likely face the strongest interior play of their season yet. Let’s see how this game should shake out in my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness first round college basketball game between Michigan State and Bryant.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout the tournament.
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Michigan State vs. Bryant preview, prediction
Michigan State is primed for a deep run, especially with their formidable defense. The Spartans have ranked in the top-30 nationally in points per possession allowed and sit comfortably in the top-20 for effective field goal percentage defense (46.3%). On the glass, Michigan State has also dominated, ranking No. 16 in defensive rebounding percentage (75.3%) and No. 59 in offensive rebounding percentage (31.4%) over the last 10 games. This physicality and defensive presence has been a hallmark of their success, and they’ve consistently made life difficult for opponents in the paint.
Their midrange game has also been a key strength, with a disciplined approach to attacking inside the arc. However, Michigan State’s glaring weakness has been their shooting from beyond the arc, ranking a disappointing 349th in the nation with just 30.2% from three-point range. Despite the defensive chops, the Spartans’ turnover rate is concerning, as they’ve averaged 16.8% turnovers per possession (No. 156 in the nation).
Bryant, as a 15-seed, has the weapons to make this a more competitive game than expected. The Bulldogs have one of the best high-major players in Earl Timberlake (14.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG), who can impact the game both in transition and around the rim. Rafael Pinzon (18.7 PPG, 39.1% from three) is a sharp shooter who can stretch the floor and challenge Michigan State’s defense. Bryant also excels in transition, ranking in the top-50 nationally for points per game (81.1 PPG) and creating second-chance opportunities with a +4.2 rebound margin in their last five games. Their aggressive play style on offense is complemented by their ability to create turnovers—they force 14.9 turnovers per game (No. 34 in the nation). Defensively, however, they rank No. 236 in effective field goal percentage allowed (51.3%), which could prove costly when facing a team as physical as Michigan State.
Bryant vs. Michigan State pick, best bet
While Bryant’s transition-heavy style and perimeter shooting can make them dangerous, recent trends show that teams with more physical, inside-based approaches are performing better and covering larger spreads. So far in the tournament, transition-heavy teams have struggled to keep up with physically dominant teams, especially when faced with strong rebounding and rim protection. In their last five games, Michigan State posted a +6.4 rebounding margin and limited opponents to just 41.2% shooting on two-pointers (No. 14 in the country). Michigan State’s rebounding advantage, defensive consistency, and physical play should be too much for Bryant to overcome.
The Bulldogs will struggle to contain Michigan State’s inside presence and their ability to control tempo through strong defensive play and second-chance opportunities. Michigan State boasts elite defensive rebounding percentage (75.3%, above), and the Bulldogs have allowed 36.7% offensive rebounds (No. 212 in the country), which will give the Spartans extra possessions. The Spartans’ perimeter struggles may hold them back, but their suffocating defense and rebounding edge should lead them to a double-digit victory.
With their dominance on the glass and in the paint (remember—No. 59 in offensive rebounding percentage, 31.4%), the Spartans should win by enough to cover the spread, even if their perimeter shooting remains inconsistent. Physical teams have been covering larger spreads so far in the tournament, and Michigan State’s style of play fits that trend. Even with the massive number.
Sparty dominates. The larger spread might actually play to Michigan State’s advantage; Izzo should have them imposing Spartan will on both sides of the ball.
Best bet: Michigan State -17.5 (-110)
Tail Sparty to roll over 15-seed Bryant in the R64 tonight with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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