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No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 2 St. John’s
Providence, RI – Saturday 2:40pm ET
We’ve got another legendary coaching matchup in Providence on Saturday afternoon, with John Calipari and Rick Pitino clashing on the hardwood. Arkansas is off an impressive win as an underdog, over a Kansas team that just couldn’t put it all together this season. St. John’s squeezed the life out of Omaha in a game that was close in the first half, pulling away by 30 points.
The Razorbacks have been red-hot down the stretch, now on an 11-2-1 ATS run. However, the Hogs haven’t seen elite defense like the Red Storm present during their run. The last three times Arkansas has faced a top-10 defense, it went 0-3 straight up and 0-2-1 ATS — falling to Texas A&M, Florida and Tennessee. The Johnnies have the No. 1 overall defensive efficiency in the country.
While these teams grade out pretty evenly on offense, I expect the gap in defense and rebounding to be the key. The Red Storm crash the glass, and have a +5.2 rebounding margin this season, compared to -1.8 for Arkansas. If this one winds up close at halftime, Saint John’s has been a tremendous second half team, particularly recently. Keep that trend in mind once this one tips off. I have the Red Storm to make the Sweet Sixteen as a future, but will be adding them into a moneyline parlay on Saturday.
No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Houston
Wichita, KS – Saturday 8:40pm ET
I’ll be pairing the Johnnies with the Cougars on Saturday night. Gonzaga blew doors in the opening game against Georgia, and I expect the Zags to be a popular upset pick here. While Houston didn’t have much competition in the first round, don’t overlook how dominant Kelvin Sampson’s squad has been. This team went an absurd 22-1 in the Big 12, constantly being tested on a nightly basis. Gonzaga played some big games this season, but isn’t nearly as sharpened out of the WCC.
This is a tough second round opponent for Houston, there’s no doubting that. Gonzaga grades as a top-10 team in KenPom and the NET, so this game should have more of an Elite Eight feel. But just because Houston gets a tough 8-seed, doesn’t mean they aren’t equipped to dominate this game. Houston ranks 360th in tempo, and while the Zags will look to speed this one up, I expect the Cougars to control pace. In doing that, it becomes a defensive game, which strongly favors them.
Houston’s always been elite on defense, but the key to its success this season has been on offense. The Cougars rank top-10 in offensive efficiency, which should provide an edge scoring on Gonzaga. Houston’s the tougher team and the better coached team.
March Madness Pick: SJU/HOU MLP (-110) 1.5-units
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
Denver, CO – Saturday 5:15pm ET
After a strong start on Friday night, Michigan survived a comeback attempt from everyone’s tournament darling, UC San Diego. The Wolverines were able to use their size and rebounding to pull away, but overall, they played a bit of a sloppy game. That isn’t going to translate well against a very physical and tough Texas A&M roster.
Both teams are relatively balanced in terms of the metrics, but the Aggies’ 7th-ranked defense stands out with this one. Look for Michigan to struggle to score, and also struggle when its size advantage is taken away. Despite starting a pair of seven-footers, the Wolverines were just about even in rebounding margin this season. A&M does a fantastic job of controlling the backboard with a +9.1 rebounding margin.
On the perimeter, the Aggies should also have an advantage in guard play. Wade Taylor is a former SEC Player of the Year, and has the ability to take over this game. If A&M has an Achilles heel, it’s shooting from downtown. But as long as the Aggies don’t go completely ice cold, they have enough to top Michigan.
March Madness Pick: Texas A&M ML (-125) 2-units
No. 9 Creighton vs. No. 1 Auburn
Lexington, KY – Saturday 7:10pm ET
I’ve been saying down the stretch of the regular season and into the SEC Tournament that it’s time to fade Auburn. I’m not changing my stance in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers were tremendous during the regular season out of the gates and all the way into early March, but it feels like they’ve run out of gas. Auburn is now just 2-3 in its last five games, going 0-5 ATS in those outings.
Enter Creighton, who’s a very dangerous 9-seed that’s now won an NCAA Tournament game in five straight postseasons. The Blue Jays have won five of their last six down the stretch, with the lone loss being in the Big East Championship Game to an elite St. John’s squad. The Jays have also won a pair of games outright as underdogs during their recent stretch.
Creighton brings plenty of experience and shooting, which is always nice, but it also has a key piece in terms of matching up with Auburn — a player to defend Johni Broome. Ryan Kalkbrenner just took home his fourth consecutive Big East Defensive Player of the Year Award, and is a serious force in the paint.
The Blue Jays should also have a coaching advantage in this one, as Greg McDermott’s been doing a terrific job navigating his team in tournaments. I think Creighton has a shot to pull the upset here, and will gladly take the points.
March Madness Pick: Creighton +10.5 (-110) 2-units
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
Denver, CO – Saturday 7:45pm ET
VCU was a trendy underdog on Thursday, but BYU showed why it had so much success down the stretch in the Big 12. The Cougars have now won 10 of 11, going 9-2 ATS during that span. Playing as the underdog hasn’t been an issue for this team, as the Cougs ripped off four straight wins as a dog, prior to losing to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament.
I’m not down on Wisconsin by any means. The Badgers have had some very good wins this season, and actually grade out pretty evenly to BYU’s explosive offense than I was expecting. Wisco has an advantage on the defensive end as well, so this will be a much tougher test for the Cougars than VCU was.
Maybe this is more of a gut call play for me than digging into the numbers. But keep in mind that this game will be played at elevation in Denver, and BYU’s depth was a major factor in wearing down VCU.
March Madness Pick: BYU ML (+120) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
