Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Jamal Murray to have a 50% chance to play tonight at Portland. Murray hasn’t played since March 15, but there’s a lot of potential if he gets back into the lineup with Nikola Jokic already ruled out.
In court time without Jokic this year, Murray averages a 25.7% usage rate, a 6.4% rebound rate, and 27.5% assist rate — good for 1.1 fantasy points per minute. While that’s not a tremendous outlier of production, it is an increase compared to Murray’s usual 23.7% usage rate, 5.7% rebound rate, and 23% assist rate along with 1.04 DKFP per minute. Murray’s production has been down overall this year but his ability to produce a ceiling performance is substantially higher if he plays with Jokic out.
If Murray were to play, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections project him for 22.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 6.9 assists. While the Nuggets/Blazers game isn’t a part of the DraftKings DFS main slate tonight, it would make Murray an interesting play for the late slate. Unabated’s bet simulation tools also forecast 11% Expected Value on Murray’s over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook. There’s money to be made off Murray tonight if he plays.
If Murray sits, Aaron Gordon and Russell Westbrook should see substantial increases in production along with a lot more opportunity to go around for everyone with the Nuggets down Denver’s two ball dominant stars. Here’s how Unabated NBA projects the other key Nuggets to perform, depending on Murray’s availability:
- Russell Westbrook projects for 19.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 10 assists (16.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 8.3 assists if Murray plays)
- Aaron Gordon projects for 21.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists (19.8 points, 7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists if Murray plays)
- Michael Porter Jr. projects for 20.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3 assists (18.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.6 assists if Murray plays)
- Christian Braun projects for 17.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists (15.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.9 assists if Murray plays)
Murray has to play for the sake of DraftKings Sportsbook’s current lines as Unabated’s bet simulation tools project high Expected Value for many Nuggets if Murray sits. If Murray is out, Westbrook is expected to have 25.5% EV on over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists on DraftKings Sportsbook; Gordon is expected to have 25.1% EV on over 29.8 PRAs; Porter Jr. has 24.2% EV on over 28.5 PRAs; and Christian Braun has 21% EV on over 23.5 PRAs.
Nuggets at Blazers tips off at 10 p.m. EST tonight. Keep a close eye on Murray’s status as one of the most crucial questionable-tagged players for prop bets and the late night slate of DraftKings DFS tournaments.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
