Florida is an all-phases juggernaut, poised to make a deep March run, after winning the SEC. They blend elite defense with offensive barrages. Norfolk State, while dangerous in spurts, faces a massive challenge in trying to slow down the Gators’ relentless depth and versatility. For the final 16-seed-versus-one-seed matchup in the Round of 64, I give you my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness first round college basketball game between Florida and Norfolk State.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Florida vs. Norfolk State preview, prediction
Florida is on another level this season. The Gators’ backcourt is arguably the best in the nation, led by Walter Clayton Jr. (16.2 PPG, 5.4 APG), Alijah Martin (18.3 PPG, 4.6 RPG), and Will Richard (12.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG). These guards all have distinct skills—Clayton is a playmaking wizard, Martin is an elite on-ball defender, and Richard is a reliable scorer with a high basketball IQ.
But the real difference-maker for Florida has been Alex Condon. The 6-foot-10 forward has stepped up as the true X-factor, bringing balance to both ends of the floor. His rebounding presence and ability to dominate inside have allowed the Gators to control the glass (Florida ranks seventh in the country in offensive rebound percentage at 38.3%) and provide their backcourt with the space they need to operate. Condon has been stellar in the SEC Tournament, where he averaged 14.5 points and 10.2 rebounds in three games, proving he can perform under pressure and fill the gaps when needed. Florida’s depth, with a formidable frontcourt rotation, is a significant strength. They boast a team that can wear teams down both physically and on the scoreboard, with five bigs capable of playing at a Final Four level.
Florida also has elite depth, allowing Todd Golden to rotate players without sacrificing performance, keeping their foot on the gas for the entire game. In the SEC Tournament, Florida dominated the glass, out-rebounding opponents by a +8.2 margin. They are top-five nationally in offensive and defensive rebound percentage (third in offensive boards, fourth in defensive), showcasing their physicality. Their ability to control the glass, shoot from the perimeter (38.5% as a team), and get to the free-throw line (74.3% as a team, No. 29 nationally) makes them a nightmare for any team they face. Florida enters this tournament as a clear title contender.
However, Florida’s major weakness has been their inconsistency early in games. In their SEC Tournament run, they did fall behind early at times, but their overall dominance of the boards and offensive balance ultimately allowed them to overcome slow starts. They’ve been prone to unforced turnovers (15.4 TOs per game), but their size, depth, and shooting ability allow them to recover quickly.
Norfolk State may look like an underdog, but this is a team that has more to offer than meets the eye. Led by Brian Moore Jr. (15.1 PPG, 5.2 APG) and Christian Ings (13.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG), the Spartans have a dynamic backcourt that can put pressure on opposing defenses. Norfolk’s aggressive defense has led to turnovers, with the Spartans forcing opponents into mistakes 20.1% of the time, ranking No. 16 nationally in defensive turnover rate. Norfolk’s frontcourt has size, with Keyshawn Mitchell (6’11”) providing a much-needed presence inside. They will look to exploit their physicality against Florida’s young bigs.
Norfolk State vs. Florida pick, best bet
The major issue for Norfolk State is their offensive inefficiency. Despite their defense, the Spartans struggle on offense, particularly from three-point range, where they only convert 29.5% of their attempts. Their inability to score from deep, combined with a -4.3 rebounding margin over their last five games, makes it difficult to keep pace with a high-powered team like Florida. Additionally, their lack of depth could cause problems when facing a team as deep and fast as the Gators. Norfolk State ranks outside the top 150 in both two-point shooting (46.1%) and field goal percentage defense (45.3%), which could allow Florida to dominate inside.
Norfolk’s only chance is to control the tempo and force Florida to rely on their perimeter shooting, but given Florida’s depth, shooting efficiency, and physicality, this is unlikely. Norfolk State ranks No. 278 in adjusted tempo (per KenPom), making it difficult for them to control the pace against a fast and efficient team like Florida. Additionally, the Spartans rank No. 273 in three-point percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 35.1% from beyond the arc. Florida’s offensive versatility and ability to stretch the floor will likely neutralize Norfolk’s defense. Florida has been one of the most complete teams all season, and their depth and physicality should ensure a comfortable win here.
I begrudge no one who sees this number and thinks it’s insurmountable. Houston covered it just yesterday, however.
Best bet: Florida -28.5 (-105)
Tail the Gators to clamp down early and dominate in the R64 with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
