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No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan
Denver, CO – Thursday 10:00pm ET
UCSD is becoming maybe the most trendy upset pick of this tournament, and a quick glance at the numbers makes it easy to see why. The Tritons are 36th in KenPon and 35th in NET, ranking only about 10 spots behind Michigan in each. UCSD ranks 57th in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency, both of which are very impressive coming out of the Big West.
The Tritons also boast numbers like 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season, even going 5-1 outright in those game. But let’s look deeper at the competition — four of those wins came against La Salle, James Madison, Toledo and UC-Santa Barbara before we knew exactly how good this team was. UCSD was getting a similar number to what they are in this one, going up against the Big Ten Tournament Champs. I’ll give the Tritons credit for defeating Utah State as a double digit dog in their best win of the season, but even the Aggies don’t quite measure out to the level of competition of the Wolverines. The other game as an underdog was the season opener against San Diego State, which they lost, but did cover as a double digit dog.
The Tritons rank 271st in tempo, so they’re really going to try to muck this game up. But they were also 180th in strength of schedule, and are really stepping up in weight class here. While UCSD has played well as an underdog, this is a completely different animal. Michigan comes with plenty of its own issues, but has a pretty balanced attack, and ranks 14th in defensive efficiency. That’s going to lead to some tough possessions for the Tritons, particularly factoring in the twin towers of Danny Wolfe and Vlad Golden, who should be a problem on both ends.
While the Wolverines had some trouble covering as a larger favorite, they were spectacular in close games. This reminds me a bit of a game from the NCAA Tournament three years ago — South Dakota State vs. Providence in 2022. The Jackrabbits were everyone’s upset pick, and closed a 2.5-point favorite against a good Friars squad coached by Ed Cooley. Providence ultimately jumped out to an early lead and won the game by nine points, and I think we see a similar script in this one. Dusty May has been doing a spectacular job turning this program around right away, and has shown the ability to produce in this tournament, taking FAU to the Final Four just a couple of years ago.
UCSD opened a 4.5-point underdog and has been bet down short enough that we can just play Michigan on the moneyline as one of my top wagers for Thursday.
March Madness Pick: Michigan ML (-142) 3-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
