Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently estimates there’s a 50% chance that Pacers’ star Tyrese Haliburton plays today after he’s missed the last two games for Indiana. The Pacers face Brooklyn tonight at home at 7:00 p.m. ET and Haliburton’s injury is one of only a few key questionable situations to monitor — a rarity in tanking season in the NBA.
Tyrese Haliburton has been a key driver of the Pacers’ offense this year with a 21.4% usage rate, 5.9% rebound rate and 37.4% assist rate. If he were to play today, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would expect him to put up a double-double with 17.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and 10.2 assists. Despite a pace down spot with the Nets (no pun intended), Indiana’s 115.5-point implied total is the fourth-highest on tonight’s slate of games.
If Haliburton is out, there would be major minutes and opportunity shifts for Indiana. In the last two games without Haliburton, we’ve seen Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell put up one outlier effort each. Yesterday versus Dallas, Nembhard put up 22 points, three rebounds and eight assists worth 39.8 FPTS. The game before, Nembhard was ejected versus Minnesota as McConnell put up 11 points, four rebounds and 13 assists — good for 36.0 FPTS. Haliburton’s status is a key to watch for these players, as well as the trickle down effect for his other teammates.
If Haliburton plays or sits, here’s how his teammate’s projections look according to Unabated NBA:
- Myles Turner projects for 15.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists (14.9 points 7.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists if Haliburton plays)
- Pascal Siakam projects for 22.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists (22.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists if Haliburton plays)
- Andrew Nembhard projects for 11.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 7.6 assists (10.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists if Haliburton plays)
- Aaron Nesmith projects for 14.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists (12.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 assists if Haliburton plays)
If Haliburton plays, there’s a lofty 16.2% Expected Value on Nembhard’s under 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line at DraftKings Sportsbook with the line slightly inflated due to the possibility of Haliburton sitting. If Haliburton is ruled out, there’s an even higher 22.3% Expected Value on Nembhard’s over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line, 11% EV on Siakam’s over 31.5 PRAs line, and 7.3% Expected Value on Nesmith’s over 18.5 PRAs line. Unabated’s bet simulation tools and conditional projections allow you to evaluate situations like this in advance, so you can quickly strike while everyone else is busy crying over Creighton busting their brackets.
Keep a close eye on Haliburton’s status tonight with Nets-Pacers one of the first games on this slate. It will have major ramifications on DraftKings DFS tournaments as well as prop bet markets.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
