This one’s a classic David vs. Goliath showdown—perhaps even more so because of how much I believe folks are underestimating the Red Raiders. But don’t let the 14-seed tag fool you—UNC Wilmington is a well-oiled, deep squad that thrives on the glass and in transition. Still, they’re walking into a buzzsaw in Texas Tech, which might just be the most dangerous three-seed in the tournament. Let’s get to a rather lopsided preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness Round of 64 college basketball game between Texas Tech and UNC Wilmington.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington prediction, pick
McCasland’s Red Raiders have found their rhythm, and with Elijah Hawkins (7.4 APG, 1.9 SPG, 16.5 PPG over the last five games) running the show and JT Toppin (12.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG over the last five) causing chaos in ball screens, they’ve become one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Texas Tech’s offensive attack ranks in the 95th percentile in ball screens, a stat that points to their devastating pick-and-roll system. Add in Chance McMillian’s (17.0 PPG, 44.2% from three in his last five games) elite shooting (at least five three-pointers in multiple games) and the do-it-all Darrion Williams (11.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.9 APG over his last five), and you’ve got a team that can score in bunches.
The problem for UNC Wilmington is simple—they thrive inside, grabbing offensive boards and getting easy putbacks, but that’s exactly where Texas Tech excels at shutting down the opposition. UNC Wilmington’s Khamari McGriff (15.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG) and Donovan Newby (14.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.9 SPG) can shoot the ball well, but they’ll be running into a defensive wall that doesn’t give up easy points in the paint, ranking near the top in limiting opponents’ interior scoring (opponents are shooting just 44.9% in the paint against Texas Tech). As Texas Tech has shown in their recent run, especially with a commanding performance in the Big 12 Tournament, their defense is punishing, and McCasland’s scheme forces teams to take contested shots, with minimal second-chance opportunities (they’ve allowed just 10.3 offensive rebounds per game over their last five).
While UNC Wilmington can push the tempo and execute well in their half-court offense, their overall lack of size and inability to get consistent stops defensively puts them in a tough spot here. Texas Tech, on the other hand, is primed for a dominant performance. Despite their thin interior, their defensive discipline and ability to limit three-pointers (opponents shoot just 31.5% from deep against them) will stymie UNC Wilmington’s offensive attack. If Texas Tech keeps the game in the half-court and controls the tempo, it will be tough for the Seahawks to keep pace.
UNC Wilmington at Texas Tech pick, best bet
The spread at Texas Tech -15.5 feels a little hefty, but given the mismatch in both size and athleticism, Texas Tech should cover with room to spare. They’ll impose their will defensively and push UNC Wilmington into uncomfortable spots all game long. This one’s going to be a grind for the Seahawks.
By the final buzzer, the Red Raiders’ offensive firepower and defensive prowess will put them in a comfortable position to move on. And when they do—watch out.
Best bet: Texas Tech 15.5 (-108)
Tail the Red Raiders to turn the Seahawks into pigeons in R64 with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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